Turkish survey vessels have entered waters in Greece’s exclusive economic zone. In response, Greece has deployed its navy. Tensions are high, and conflict is now a possibility.
There is only one person to blame for this crisis — Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The Turkish leader is using his energy survey vessels as de facto pirate ships. These surveys are intended to assert control over undersea resources. Greece isn’t backing down. Its foreign ministry warned on Monday that it “will not accept any blackmail. It will defend its sovereignty and sovereign rights. We call on Turkey to immediately end its illegal actions that undermine peace and security in the region.”
But neither is Erdogan blinking. Using this showdown to consolidate his ultra-nationalist right flank, Erdogan has deployed his own warships to escort the survey vessels. The Turkish leader is banking on Greece limiting its response to protestations. Erdogan also will be hoping that ongoing mediation efforts led by Chancellor Angela Merkel will end in his favor.
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis wants NATO to exert more pressure on Turkey, but it’s clear that NATO and the European Union favor the German mediation track more than any exertion of serious pressure on Erdogan. In part, that’s because Erdogan is so unpredictable, and there is a real fear that he might fire on Greek vessels should they intercede against him. There are additional considerations. Emotions are running high over the situation in Libya (particularly between Turkey and France), and with regards to the migrant crisis. The hope is that Erdogan will keep up this activity for a few days and then return his vessels to Turkish waters. But the longer the showdown goes on, the more pressure there will be on Mitsotakis to take action.
While the Hellenic navy could board and secure the survey vessels, it would be outmatched by the more modern Turkish navy. The Greek air force, however, is better trained and more agile than its Turkish counterpart.
Neither nation would have any interest in securing a major territorial expansion, and so any conflict would likely be defined by localized skirmishes rather than full-scale war. Of course, any conflict between two NATO member states would be a disaster for the alliance and for stability across the Mediterranean Sea area. Vladimir Putin would be quick to take advantage of this chaos, especially with regard to his interests in Libya.
The United States should thus join with the EU in pushing Turkey to withdraw its survey vessels. If Erdogan refuses to act, he should be warned of new sanctions on his struggling economy.
