For all of the bitter partisanship that attended Obamacare’s passage three years ago, key elements of the law — including subsidies to uninsured Americans making up to $94,000 a year and expanding Medicaid coverage to 12 million new enrollees — won’t take effect until 2014. The law’s full impact on American health care, in other words, is yet to come.

But it’s not too soon to start comparing claims made about the law with the latest data on how it is likely to perform. This is exactly what my colleague Yevgeniy Feyman and I attempt to do in a new report for the Manhattan Institute, which focuses on the law’s probable impact on U.S. health care costs. We found that the law is unlikely to significantly lower the rate of growth of U.S. health care costs, and several provisions are in fact likely to increase them.