If you don’t know who Evan McMullin is, you should find out: He could very well be the next president of the United States.
Sound crazy? It is, but in an election season that has brought us sex scandals, wild accusations, hacked emails, and, most recently, a second FBI investigation into one of the two major party candidates (as well as a second “closing” of that investigation), just about anything is possible.
McMullin is a former CIA officer who previously served as the chief policy director for the House Republican Conference. A graduate of Brigham Young University and the prestigious Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, McMullin is a self-described constitutionalist. Like Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Marco Rubio, all of whom ran to be the Republican presidential nominee, McMullin supports limited government, states’ rights, fewer regulations and taxes, a strong national defense and a number of other policy positions traditionally held by “conservative” Republicans.
McMullin announced his candidacy in August as an alternative for Republicans reluctant to embrace Donald Trump. While his campaign has failed to gain a significant following in much of the nation, the Provo, Utah native has managed to capture the imagination of many conservatives in Utah, a GOP stronghold that has voted for the GOP presidential nominee in every election since 1964.
Astoundingly, the most recent poll of Utah voters (conducted by Y2 Analytics) has McMullin in second place to Trump and well within striking distance. Quin Monson, the founder of Y2 Analytics and a prominent pollster in Utah, announced at the end of October that he believes McMullin will win Utah. According to a report by KUTV, a CBS affiliate in Salt Lake City, Monson “is not a McMullin supporter.” Also, three other polls conducted within the past few weeks have shown McMullin within the margin of error, although some polls show him far behind Trump.
Of course, even if McMullin were to win the state, he’d still be 264 electoral college votes from capturing the White House. So how can this relatively unknown independent become the next president of the United States?
In the wake of the FBI’s decision to reopen the investigation into Hillary Clinton, Trump has surged in numerous swing states where he is now tied or has the advantage, including Florida, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio. However, even if Trump wins all of these states, which at the moment seems increasingly likely, he’ll still fall short of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election. For Trump to become president, he’ll need to capture at least one additional swing state that he’s been polling behind Clinton in for several consecutive months, such as Maine, New Hampshire or Pennsylvania.
It’s impossible to predict how the race will end up, but there are several different scenarios that could result in neither Clinton or Trump getting to 270 votes, which would be significantly more likely with a McMullin win in Utah.
If no candidate garners 270 electoral votes, the 12th Amendment to the Constitution requires the House of Representatives to decide the winner amongst the top three candidates receiving electoral votes, which would include McMullin if he were to win Utah. Each state delegation in the House, which is currently controlled by Republicans, would have one vote.
You might think all the House Republicans would vote to hand Trump the presidency in this scenario, but many House Republicans, including Rep. Mia Love of Utah, Rep. Joe Heck of Nevada and Rep. Martha Roby of Alabama, have said they don’t support the idea of a Trump presidency. If “Never Trump” House conservatives could muster enough support, they might be able to convince Democratic Party delegations, who would have no hope of electing Clinton, to choose to throw their support behind McMullin as part of a last-ditch effort to stop Donald Trump.
The plan might sound crazy, but similar situations occurred in the 19th century. In July, Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson acknowledged his campaign is embracing a similar strategy.
Could Americans really end up with President Evan McMullin? As the past month has proven, almost anything is possible in this election.
Justin Haskins is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. He is an executive editor at The Heartland Institute. Thinking of submitting an op-ed to the Washington Examiner? Be sure to read our guidelines on submissions.
