When the Democratic National Committee announced their upgraded qualifications for the November presidential debate, I predicted that eight candidates would make the cut. It still looks like I was right about the number, but by some act of God, it’s not billionaire Tom Steyer who’ll lose his spot on the stage. It increasingly looks like it’s going to be Beto O’Rourke.
Although the failed senatorial candidate hit the donor threshold long ago, he’s failed to secure the qualifying polls he needs. In fact, the qualifying and non-qualifying national polls alike have seen O’Rourke sink like a stone. His RealClearPolitics polling average stands at 2.3%, half a point behind Andrew Yang. Yang, by the way, needs just one more poll to become the eighth candidate to secure a spot on the November stage.
Theoretically, O’Rourke could go Steyer’s route and divert all of his efforts to early state polling, but it’s unlikely that a new field office or Instagram live is going to save him. O’Rourke claims he raised more money this past quarter than the $3.6 million he raked in from April through June, but with Yang posting $10 million and Bernie Sanders topping the fundraising with more than $25.3 million, the top six candidates in the race have absorbed the bulk of the cash. Steyer can self-fund his vanity project, but O’Rourke probably can’t without help from his billionaire father-in-law.
Steyer has managed to buy his way to the stage with strong early state polling, and Yang will likely gain his last poll nationally or else in Nevada, where he’s remarkably caught fire. In contrast, O’Rourke has flamed out in every early state. With the media rekindling their love affair with insurgent front-runner Elizabeth Warren, O’Rourke seems busted at long last.
