Saudi Arabia is preparing for war and doubling down on its modernity revolution. That’s my takeaway from the desert kingdom’s replacement on Monday of its chairman of the joint chiefs and its air defense and army commanders. Crown prince Mohammed bin Salman’s hand is very evident here.
The unceremonious dumping of incumbent officials wasn’t limited to the military; also Monday, various security and provincial officials were also sent packing and younger officials promoted to replace them. A female minister was also appointed to the Labor Department.
These changes speak to something deeper: While King Salman’s stamp was applied to the personnel changes, Mohammed bin Salman is the key here.
Bin Salman is striving to boost the combat potential of his military, to promote women’s opportunities, and to diversify his nation’s oil-dependent and patronage-based economy, in part by pursuing nuclear development. But the 32-year-old prince isn’t willing to be patient: he has cracked down on those who he believes do not support his reform agenda.
His latest purge is especially notable in that it shows bin Salman believes the Saudi military needs dramatic improvement. While the Saudi armed forces are well-equipped, they lack the readiness to confidently fight and win against a military skilled in asymmetric warfare, such as that of Iran. Moreover, considering the ongoing Saudi-versus-Iranian proxy war in Yemen, and regional threats of war, Saudi military weakness is no longer tolerable.
And bin Salman doesn’t appear to simply be replacing officials on a whim. His focus on excusing the army and air defense chiefs but retaining the navy and air force chiefs reflects the former’s particularly poor records. The air defense chief’s position was obviously vulnerable in light of continuing Iranian ballistic missile attacks on Riyadh, and the army remains grossly inefficient.
These changes show that bin Salman wants greater bang for his buck and an injection of urgency into military reform efforts. This doesn’t necessarily mean that war is coming, but it does it illustrate bin Salman’s perspective that Saudi Arabia’s future is likely to include wars.
