Progressives had a rough go of it Tuesday in the November elections, picking up only five House seats in a midterm cycle that included nearly a dozen hard-left House, gubernatorial, and Senate candidates.
Their defeats easily outweigh their victories, and the losses are undoubtedly painful as they include big-ticket items like the $66-plus million Georgia governor’s race and the $107-plus million Texas Senate race. Similar to the Democratic Party’s overall showing in the 2018 midterm election cycle, the best progressives can say is that they had an OK night.
But there’s more to this than just a disappointing night of elections: As National Journal’s Josh Kraushaar pointed out, the dream team hard-left slate compiled with #Resistance activist Sean McElwee lost basically every competitive race, suggesting the progressive political movement is not quite ready for the big leagues.
Arizona gubernatorial candidate David Garcia, for example, lost hard to incumbent Republican Gov. Doug Ducey. Florida gubernatorial candidate and Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum also lost his race, conceding defeat last night to Rep. Ron DeSantis, R-Fla., in one of the most unexpected twists of the evening. Georgia’s Democratic House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams fell to her Republican opponent, Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp. Lastly, Ben Jealous was trounced badly in Maryland Tuesday evening by Republican Gov. Larry Hogan, who ended the night with a 13.4-point victory.
Meanwhile, the only really competitive Senate race featuring a progressive candidate ultimately went in the GOP’s favor, as incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, defeated media darling Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-Texas.
Lastly, let’s look at the competitive House races featuring progressive candidates.
Progressive law professor Katie Porter is projected to lose her bid for California’s 45th Congressional District to Rep. Mimi Walters, R-Calif. Meanwhile, Kara Eastman went down swinging in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, losing to Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb. Dana Balter blew it in New York’s 24th Congressional District, falling to Rep. John Katko, R-N.Y. Progressive candidate Scott Wallace was defeated in Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District, losing to incumbent Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa. Lastly, there’s Virginia’s 5th Congressional District, where Leslie Cockburn lost to Republican Denver Riggleman.
These were competitive races for both the Left and the Right. California’s 45th is an R+3 district. Nebraska’s 2nd is an R+4 district. Wallace ran in an R+1 district, Balter ran in a D+3 district, and Cockburn ran in an R+6 district.
In contrast, the openly progressive candidates who won Tuesday couldn’t have picked friendlier territories. New York’s 14th District, where far-left wunderkind Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez won, is D+29. Massachusetts’ 7th District, which was won by Ayanna Pressley, is D+34. Rashida Tlaib is the new congresswoman for Michigan’s 13th, which is D+32. Similarly, Illinois’ 4th, where Jesus “Chuy” Garcia is the new representative, is a D+33 district. In other words, former President Abraham Lincoln himself couldn’t win these districts on account of having an “R” next to his name. A Democrat is winning no matter what. All progressives have to do is make it through the primary process.
The only anomaly here is Deb Haaland, who won New Mexico’s D+7 1st Congressional District. Her success is worth monitoring, but the larger trend still suggests progressivism’s best chance of attaining power is through overwhelmingly Democratic enclaves.
Like Kraushaar and McElwee, I’m not going to go so far as to say Tuesday’s results prove progressives can’t win competitive races. But I do think the results suggest the hard-left haven’t found a way to market themselves to a broader audience. Until they do, the only chance they have of electoral success exists exclusively in D+25 and D+30 districts.
