Cleaned of the coronavirus but still without Capt. Brett Crozier, the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group has departed Guam and is again operating in the Philippine Sea.
It’s timely news. A senior Defense Department official told Fox News that Chinese fighter jets are conducting increasingly aggressive interceptions of U.S. military aircraft in international airspace. According to the official, “at least nine” dangerous interceptions have occurred since mid-March.
Three things are going on here.
First, Xi Jinping is using the world’s distraction over the coronavirus pandemic to advance his imperial strategy in the South China Sea. Determined to seize these international waters in service of China’s trade, energy, and fishing hegemony, Xi is ramping up his military’s operational tempo. Second, Xi is increasing pressure on President Trump as a response to Trump’s pressure on China over the coronavirus. Third, the Chinese are copying the Russians — who also love to play these intercept games.
Fortunately, the USS Theodore Roosevelt and its embarked carrier air wing can address this concern.
Albeit with a reduced crew complement, the air wing began its requalification testing Thursday. That one- to two-week process involves ensuring the air wing is ready for operational service. But while that happens, the strike group should be sent to the South China Sea. By the time it arrives in a few days, the air wing will be qualified or nearly qualified.
At that point, the unarmed U.S. P-8 surveillance flights won’t need to operate alone and at the mercy of People’s Liberation Army fighter jets. The United States can simply fly what are known as high-value combat air patrols to escort the P-8s or other unarmed American aircraft. After all, Carrier Air Wing Eleven has four fighter squadrons of 12 F-18E/F jets each. And whether the Chinese are operating J-class fighters or newer SU-30s in their intercepts of the P-8s, they will be outmatched. If the Chinese want to, they can face off with some of the finest aviators in the U.S. military.
There would be other advantages to flying escorts beyond simply protecting the U.S. aircraft.
For one, the escorts would give the carrier air wing an opportunity to fly against PLA air forces. While U.S. naval aviators train extensively in preparation for a possible conflict with China, they rarely get an opportunity to go eyeball to eyeball with Chinese combat fighters. Assuming the Chinese are not deterred by the very presence of the escorts, which would be a win in and of itself, these escorts thus offer some ideal experience opportunities. Considering that a conflict in the South China Sea is becoming more likely by the month, the U.S. has an interest in maximizing its force’s exposure to the PLA. This is especially pertinent in light of U.S. aircraft carriers’ vulnerability to Chinese ballistic missile strikes.
The escorts would also send a strategic message to Xi, educating him to America’s resolve to match his own escalations with appropriate counterforce. As China’s supreme leader considers his next moves, the U.S. must retain a deterrent resolution that meets his understanding.
Will the Navy do this? I asked the Pacific Fleet, and a spokesman, Lt. James Adams, told me, “As a matter of policy, we do not comment on future operations. But I can tell you that the U.S. Navy continues to operate on, above, and below the world’s oceans in accordance with international law.”
We’ll just have to wait and see.
