Last week was a strange one as I got one pick very wrong and one pick very right. Let’s just say I’m glad I get to make my picks indoors and not in the deluge that hit Ann Arbor, Michigan, on Saturday.
Onwards to week 10’s action! Only one month until conference championship games.
Record after week nine: Straight up – (22-5), against the spread – (18-9)
No. 14 Michigan (6-2) at Maryland (3-5) (Noon ET on ABC)
Full disclosure: I am a Maryland alum.
This game features teams headed in different directions. Michigan is riding high after blowing out top-10 Notre Dame at home in crappy conditions. Suddenly, the Wolverines have new life to their season.
Maryland, meanwhile, was routed by 42 points at undefeated Minnesota. Maryland’s three blowout wins stand in stark contrast to the blowout losses to Penn State, Purdue, and Minnesota and the close defeats to Temple and Indiana.
Shea Patterson may not be the quarterback that Michigan fans want, but he’s the one they deserve. He’s completing just 57% of his passes, but he has thrown for 1,622 yards and 11 touchdowns against just four picks. His numbers aren’t eye-popping by any stretch of the imagination. However, he has seven touchdowns (five passing and two rushing) and just one interception in his last three games (which featured decent competition from Notre Dame, Penn State, and Illinois).
There haven’t been a lot of positives for Maryland recently. The biggest highlight might be Javon Leake’s big game against Indiana, where he had 23 carries for 158 yards and two touchdowns. He had a great game against Purdue the week before, carrying seven times for 79 yards and a touchdown. Had Maryland not fallen so far behind so quickly, we might have seen more of him against Minnesota. Despite that, he was still averaging over six yards per carry against the Golden Gophers. Anthony McFarland Jr., who was making such a big impact offensively early on in the season, has been ineffective lately.
The key in this game will be Michigan’s offensive line against Maryland’s defensive front. If Maryland can’t get penetration and pressure up front, the Terps have no shot at winning. The Wolverines ran for over 300 yards against Notre Dame and held the Fighting Irish to just 47 rushing yards. They outgained Penn State on the ground and in the air and nearly ran for 300 yards against Illinois while holding the Fighting Illini to just 64. Michigan’s offensive line and running backs are playing with a lot of confidence right now. That’s bad news for the Terps.
The spread: Michigan (-21.5)
My pick: Maryland actually beat Michigan in The Big House in 2014 upon joining the Big Ten. Since then, the Terrapins have been getting shelled (pun intended) by the Wolverines who have won each of the last four games by at least 21 points. That trend will continue today in College Park. Michigan wins big and covers the spread.
No. 8 Georgia (6-1) vs. No. 6 Florida (7-1) (3:30 p.m. ET on CBS)
The Jaws versus the Paws in Jacksonville, Florida. The world’s largest outdoor cocktail party. It’s one of the best rivalry games in the country. I grew up in Georgia, and it’s one of my favorite college football games to watch every single year. This is smash-mouth, hard-nosed football between two programs that really don’t care for each other. This game will decide who wins the SEC East and gets to play either LSU or Alabama in the SEC title game. A loss also knocks either team out of the College Football Playoff picture.
Here are some stats that stand out to me: Georgia has the nation’s fifth-best scoring defense. Florida is ranked 12th. Georgia has the nation’s 16th-best rushing offense. Florida is ranked 90th. Georgia has the nation’s fifth-best run defense. Florida is ranked 31st.
While Jake Fromm is not a very exciting quarterback, he’s efficient and helps win football games. He has thrown for just over 1,400 yards this season with nine touchdowns and three picks and is completing just over 70% of his passes. D’Andre Swift has been electric for the Dawgs, running for nearly seven yards a carry this season. He has seven rushing touchdowns this year and will need to have a solid game for Georgia if the Bulldogs want to win.
Kyle Trask, despite being thrust into action as a backup because of Feleipe Franks’ injury, has thrown for nearly as many yards as Fromm. He has just under 1,400 passing yards this season and has thrown for 14 touchdowns and just four picks. He’s also completing 67.5% of his passes, a great number for a guy with no starting experience coming into the season. Trask will need to get the football out of his hand quickly because Smart will be dialing up a lot of blitzes. When the Dawgs drop guys back into coverage, Trask will need to make good decisions. Throwing the ball away if nothing is there or taking off and running will be crucial.
This game almost always comes down to which team can run the ball more effectively, win the turnover battle, control the tempo, and execute in the red zone. Very basic stuff, but it all starts with the ability to control the line of scrimmage. Unsurprisingly, the battle at the line will be my X-factor in this game.
The spread: Georgia (-6.5)
My pick: The Bulldogs are coming off of a bye week, have the better defense, better quarterback, and better running game. I’m taking Georgia to win and cover the spread.
No. 15 SMU (8-0) at No. 24 Memphis (7-1) (7:30 p.m. ET on ABC)
The implications of this game are pretty big. If SMU wins, barring a meltdown, they’ll represent the AAC West in the conference title game. If they win the conference title and are undefeated, they’ll be playing a big-time program in a New Year’s Day bowl. It would also mean the official resurgence of a program that was given the death penalty by the NCAA in the late 1980s and shut down for two years.
This game features two top-10 offenses. SMU checks in at sixth nationally and Memphis comes in at No. 10. Each team has a top-25 passing offense and a run game that ranks in the top 45 nationally. The Mustangs have topped 34 points in each of their eight games this season and have scored at least 41 in six of them.
Each team also nearly lost their last game. SMU survived a trip to Houston and Memphis was nearly upended on the road at Tulsa.
Shane Buechele (who transferred in from Texas) and Xavier Jones have been big-time playmakers for the Mustangs all season long. Buechele is completing 63.2% of his passes and has thrown for over 2,300 yards this season. He has thrown for 20 touchdowns and seven interceptions and has run for a pair of scores as well. Jones is nearly at 900 rushing yards on the season. He’s averaging 5.4 yards per carry and has run for 14 touchdowns.
On the other sideline, Brady White has thrown for nearly 2,200 yards this season and is completing 69% of his passes. He has also thrown 20 touchdown passes against just four interceptions. Kenneth Gainwell is the Tigers’ star running back. He’s a mere 21 rushing yards shy of 1,000 for the season and has run for 11 touchdowns while averaging an absurd 7.1 yards per carry.
This game will be very similar to Georgia-Florida in principle but not in style. If these were boxing fights, I’d compare Georgia-Florida to the Thrilla in Manilla between Ali and Frazier, and I’d compare SMU-Memphis to “The War” between Marvin Hagler and Thomas Hearns. I expect to see lots of big plays from these two explosive offenses.
The team that runs the ball most effectively and controls the tempo and the clock will be able to keep the opposing offense off the field while wearing down the opposing team’s defense. Whichever team executes in the red zone, scoring touchdowns instead of settling for field goals, and wins the turnover battle will gain a huge edge in the game.
The spread: Memphis (-6.0)
The pick: I think this is the game where SMU shows folks that they are for real. I believe the Mustangs have what it takes to win against a tough Tigers team on the road in a shootout. I’m taking SMU to win as road underdogs, so grab the ponies and the points.
Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.
