PITTSBURGH — Vice President Mike Pence is heading to Pennsylvania on Tuesday for a fundraiser for Scott Wagner, the Republican gubernatorial candidate who is facing incumbent Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf, who is seeking his second term.
Pence is in Philadelphia on behalf of the Republican Governors Association, the campaign apparatus designed to elect or keep GOP state executives in office. There are 36 gubernatorial seats up for grabs this November; 26 of them are held by Republicans.
In Pennsylvania, Wolf immediately pushed back against Pence’s visit with his own fundraising plea via email.
Activists in Philadelphia plan a more withering response to the Pence/Wagner fundraiser with a protest sponsored by the Youth Caucus of America and seven other local Philadelphia grassroots groups to be held outside of the Rittenhouse Hotel.
The Youth Caucus Facebook statement encouraged attendees to “be part of a fierce condemnation of ripping apart families” and to bring children’s shoes to line the street with as they directed people to “Get in the streets with us, get loud with us, saying Hell No! Trump and Pence and their whole fascist regime have got to go.”
For both political parties, there is more at stake in Pennsylvania than which party controls the governor’s office — it’s what the governing party gets to do with that power two years from now when the act of redrawing legislative districts begins after the 2020 census.
Wolf has already shown he has a thumb on the redrawing scale and will use it. Earlier this year, the Democratic-controlled Pennsylvania state Supreme Court usurped legislative powers and dove into politics, resulting in Pennsylvania’s congressional seats being redrawn to favor Democrats. The ruling upended Republicans’ ability to maintain their 13-5 congressional majority, already weakened by the March special election win by Democrat Conor Lamb in the former 18th Congressional District.
Whoever holds the gubernatorial seat in 2020 could have the power to either move the lines to further benefit the Democrats or move them back to favor the Republicans, depending on the victor.
Wolf made history in 2014 when he beat incumbent Republican Gov. Tom Corbett by 10 percentage points, marking the first time a challenger from any party pushed out a sitting governor since the state enacted a two-term limit in 1968.
The Trump-Pence ticket made its own history in Pennsylvania in 2016 when they squeaked by Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, the first time a Republican ticket had won the state since George H.W. Bush did in 1988.
A poll of registered voters conducted by Franklin and Marshall College showed Wolf leading Wagner by 19 percentage points, 48-29 percent, with 23 percent of the voters undecided.
Despite the lopsided polling numbers, it makes long-term sense for Pence to make the effort. There is more than just a governor’s seat gain at stake for the Republicans; more often than not, the path to the majority in the House usually barrels through Pennsylvania.
If the GOP is wisely looking toward its future, winning that seat back is essential.
Wolf is also keenly aware of his responsibility of holding the power for the Democrats. Last week with Braddock mayor and lieutenant governor nominee John Fetterman, Wolf released an ad showing the governor taking Fetterman — a tattooed former linebacker, wearing a bowling shirt — to buy his first tie. The ad was obviously meant to appeal to voters outside of the Democratic base.
If this race evens out in the polls, look for more luminaries from both parties to come to Pennsylvania and try to take either man, and their party’s power, over the finish line.
