There is growing frustration throughout the country over President Joe Biden’s poor performance in handling the economy, and there appears to be no group more concerned about Biden’s lack of leadership than Latinos.
In July, Quinnipiac University released a poll that showed Biden’s approval rating among Latino voters at 19% and a disapproval rating at 70%. Daniel Garza, president of the Libre Initiative, a nationwide Latino outreach organization, shared with me that “with majorities of Latinos expressing their belief that America is heading in the wrong direction and feeling the pain of runaway inflation, it is no surprise to see a political realignment — benefiting the GOP — happening in real time.”
The “Latino base” that Democrats have relied upon for years is quickly dwindling. Garza added that “a recent Pew post-election voter survey showed that just 20% of Latino voters described themselves as liberal, while 45% said they were moderate and 35% identified as conservative. A similar poll from 2012 showed it was 30%, 31%, and 32% respectively. A concerning factor for Democrats is that Latinos are identifying less and less as ideologically liberal, and more as conservative or moderate.”
Incumbent Senate Democrats in the Southwest face the biggest hurdle this November, and with a Democratic Senate majority hanging on by a thread, a loss in either Arizona or Nevada (or both) would be devastating for Democrats. They have focused for decades on appealing to Spanish-speaking communities, but with the party’s shift further to the left, these communities are feeling alienated and used.
There is no greater example of this than in Nevada. Incumbent Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is seeking reelection, running against former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt. Cortez Masto entered the Senate in 2016, filling the seat of then-Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. She won the seat by 2.4 points. While recent polls show Cortez Masto and Laxalt essentially tied (an Emmerson poll has Laxalt +1), Biden maintains a 41% approval rating within the state and is growing in unpopularity among the state’s Latinos.
Nevada has seen a 6% increase in Latino registered voters this year; when breaking those numbers down further, Democrats are seeing a statewide voter lead of only 2.8% (a decrease from 3.9% in February). So, while Democrats do have a slight lead in the Silver State, the party seems to be focused on all the wrong things.
In July, a Nevada Independent poll showed that 44% of Nevadans feel “jobs and the economy” are the most important issues this election cycle. This is not good news for Cortez Masto, who maintains a 92% Biden voting record, including her vote to pass Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, which will do little to help Nevada in the short term, all while increasing immediate fears of economic uncertainty. Liberal policies that don’t focus on empowerment, but rather on entitlement, fail to pass muster, so as Biden continues to fall in popularity among Latinos in Nevada, so will Cortez Masto.
Additionally, there is great momentum on the Republican side in Nevada. During the June 14 primary, Republicans received roughly 50,000 more votes in the state than Democrats. Latinos for Laxalt, a Latino outreach group for the Republican candidate, along with national groups such as the Libre Initiative and the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s Operación ¡Vamos!, are fully engaged in the state, promoting a pro-growth, pro-worker, and pro-free market message. This is resonating with Nevada Latinos who represent that state’s strong working class, specifically the service industry.
The focus Republicans are placing on Latino voter engagement in Nevada is impressive and much-needed. Latinos are not single-issue voters, but when push comes to shove, jobs and the economy motivate their voters. As long as Republicans continue to shed light on our nation’s worsening economic crisis, they will not only win elections in blue states, but they will also gain support from an ever-increasing voting bloc throughout the country.
James Kimmey (@RealJimmyKimmey) is executive director of Senate Working Group, a Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit organization.
