As the genocidal objectives of the Kremlin are revealed in Ukraine, much of the exiled Russian democrats remain inactive. Opposition leaders are imprisoned or murdered inside Russia, but many have been expelled with an opportunity to mobilize the diaspora. The failure of exiled activists to arrange effective protests or form a government-in-exile opens the terrain for alternative voices, particularly for nations and regions demanding sovereignty or independence from the Russian state.
The Free Nations of Post-Russia, poised to hold its third forum in Gdansk, Poland, on Sept. 23-25, is developing such an alternative program.
A narrow focus on democratization by Russia’s exiles is having little impact inside Russia. It is also missing the country’s political trajectory in the midst of deepening international isolation, crippling economic sanctions, and looming military defeat. The hopes among liberal exiles that Russia can develop into a democratic polity and remain intact appears increasingly illusory. Support for the Putin regime can shift rapidly among a disoriented public, but there is no evidence that Russia is on the verge of a peaceful democratic upsurge. Much more likely is a series of elite power struggles, which we are already witnessing in the mysterious deaths of oligarchs, and increasing public and regional revolts in the light of Moscow’s economic and military failures. Putin’s ouster can itself contribute to the turmoil and precipitate even more widespread political and social conflicts.
Transition plans developed by the liberal opposition, including the Free Russia Forum, focus on the central state and fail to include diverse pathways to restructure the Russian Federation. They have not developed blueprints for genuine federalism, strengthening regional self-determination, ensuring the collective rights of numerous non-Russian nations, or curtailing the exploitation of natural resources by the imperial center at the cost of the “federal subjects.”
Not surprisingly, many of the exiles and imprisoned activists are perceived outside of Russia’s liberal circles as being Moscow-centric and favoring assimilation and russification. Any loosening of central controls by a government-facing crisis is likely to generate more far-reaching demands for decentralization and regional self-determination. However, it is highly unlikely that opposition democrats would agree for republics and regions to have the option of sovereignty or secession and the right to establish direct diplomatic and economic links with other countries.
Russian political exiles are also treated with suspicion by neighbors such as Ukraine, which view them as supporters of a reformed Russian empire that will continue to claim their territory, history, and identity. Such fears are heightened by the lack of clarity on the return of illegally seized Crimea to Ukraine from oppositionists such as Alexei Navalny. Russian exiles must realize that trust in any Russian leaders regardless of professed ideology has been severely damaged as a result of the massive attack on Ukraine and the muted reaction of the vast majority of the Russian population. Limiting Russia’s military capabilities must be a priority so they no longer pose a threat to neighbors, and any hope of reconciliation hinges on war crimes trials for Russia’s leaders and massive war reparations from Moscow.
The Free Nations of Post-Russia Forum can address such questions by presenting a vision of Russia than no longer threatens its neighbors. It assembles emigre activists from several nations and regions of northwest Russia, including Ingria, Karelia, and Kaliningrad. Other gatherings have focused on the Middle Volga, Siberia, and the North Caucasus. Unfortunately, liberal opposition exiles have neglected these regional and national activists whose importance will grow as Russia’s failures intensify. Vitriolic Kremlin attacks on the Free Nations Forum has simply underscored its fears of real challenges to the current Russian state.
Janusz Bugajski is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, D.C. His new book, Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture, has just been published.
