President Trump’s manic May crucially cost him — with Republicans. As it turns out, it’s not such a great idea to spend a global pandemic rage tweeting, conspiracy-mongering, and gleefully baiting race riots.
New polling shows Trump losing ground with Republican voters in particular. A staggering 56% of registered voters polled by Morning Consult said they felt Trump’s handling of the George Floyd protests and demonstrations was either poor or “only fair.” That includes a majority of Christian voters and 42% of Evangelicals, a group that overwhelmingly backed Trump in 2016 and crucially compelled him to back criminal justice reform in 2018.
More than 4 in 5 poll respondents who said they voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 said his response was either poor or “only fair,” and perhaps most concerningly, 42% of Trump’s 2016 backers say he’s doing an “excellent” or “very good” job.
On the coronavirus, public opinion of Trump’s response has plummeted by 10 points to an all-time low, with just 41% approving of his response to a pandemic that’s killed 100,000 people in the United States and 40 million jobs.
These are not normal numbers reflecting standard negative partisanship. Instead, they provide insight into Trump’s glaring problems with the voting base he’s required to keep enthused through Election Day. Trump has a chance to prove he’s not all bluster and broken promises to the law-and-order voters who gave him the Republican nomination, and the polling clearly shows he’s blowing it.
Even though the nation overwhelmingly supports peaceful protests and justice for Floyd, more than 3 in 4 registered voters overall “strongly” or “somewhat” support establishing curfews in cities with protests, including 76% of Clinton voters and 86% of Trump voters. More than 7 in 10 overall voters support calling in the National Guard to supplement city police forces, including nearly 2 in 3 Clinton voters and nearly 9 in 10 Trump voters. And nearly 3 in 5 overall voters support calling in the military to supplement city police forces, with the backing of 46% of Clinton voters and 77% of Trump voters.
Imagine a world in which Trump stopped tweeting, held solemn public remarks honoring Floyd, and promised to continue his legacy of criminal justice reform with a bill ending qualified immunity for police. When rioters inevitably hijacked the peaceful protests, he could immediately send in the military to shut the whole thing down without being accused of race-baiting.
Instead, he ran his mouth while failing to prove he’s a law-and-order president.
Trump is talking a big talk right now, not all of it good. But he’s failed to live up to his promises to his base, and it’s costing him in the polls.
