Sen. Mark Udall, D-Colo., has spent so much of his campaign trying to push the “War on Women” narrative to hang on to his Senate seat that he has earned the nickname “Mark Uterus.”
With challenger Rep. Cory Gardner, R-Colo., earning a lead in recent polls, it’s raised questions as to whether exploiting gender issues — which was such an effective strategy for Democrats 2012 — has lost its effectiveness. But it’s worth questioning whether Colorado was a good place to focus on this strategy in the first place.
While there’s no doubt that women voters (particularly unmarried women) helped re-elect President Obama, looking back at exit polls from 2012, what becomes clear is that Obama’s margin over Mitt Romney among women was significantly narrower in Colorado than it was nationally.
Nationally, Obama crushed Romney among female voters by an 11-point margin, but in Colorado, that margin was just three points (he actually did better among male voters in the state, carrying them by five points).
Though Obama won unmarried women in Colorado by 25 points, that was lower than the 36-point margin he achieved among the demographic group nationally. In addition, unmarried women only made up 15 percent of the Colorado electorate in 2012, compared to 23 percent nationally.
Democrats may be banking on the fact that in Udall’s 2008 race and in Sen. Michael Bennet’s 2010 race, the Democratic candidates were both able to win after racking up double-digit margins among female voters.
But it is worth keeping in mind that in 2012, however effective the “War on Women” narrative was nationally, it didn’t have as much of an impact in Colorado.
On the flip side, this may also be a reason for Republican caution in the event of a Gardner win. Should he emerge victorious, Republicans will be tempted to conclude that his campaign could serve as a model for how they could defeat “War on Women” style attacks from Democrats in 2016. Yet if Colorado is a special case, it may not be as illustrative.
Gardner leads Udall by two points in the RealClearPolitics average. A CNN/ORC poll released on Wednesday has Gardner ahead by four points, and reaching the key 50 percent support threshold. That poll has him trailing by nine points among women, but crushing Udall by 20 points among men.
