The Republican Party of Iowa decided Friday against holding the Iowa Straw Poll this year. The decision is a dramatic reversal of a unanimous January 2015 board vote in favor of it.
It’s a shame to see the straw poll die, given its incredible track record of accurate prediction. Remember in 2011, when the straw poll winner went on to win the Iowa caucuses and the Republican nomination?
Just kidding, Michele Bachmann did neither of those things. Not even close.
Here’s a look back at every Iowa Straw Poll result since it began in 1979. There’s no Democratic equivalent, so there are only six straw polls to look back on.
2011
Straw poll winner: Michele Bachmann. Went on to finish sixth in the Iowa caucuses and won zero states in the Republican primary process.
Iowa Caucus winner Rick Santorum finished fourth in the straw poll.
Republican nominee Mitt Romney finished seventh in the straw poll.
2007
Straw Poll winner: Mitt Romney. Went on to finish second in the Iowa caucuses and won 11 states in the Republican primary process.
Iowa Caucus winner Mike Huckabee finished second in the straw poll.
Republican nominee John McCain finished tenth in the straw poll.
1999
Straw poll winner: George W. Bush. Went on to win the Iowa caucuses and the Republican nomination, losing only seven states.
1995
Straw poll winners: Bob Dole and Phil Gramm tied. Dole went on to win the Iowa caucuses and the Republican nomination, losing only six states.
Gramm went on to finish fifth in the caucuses and won zero states in the Republican primary process.
1987
Straw poll winner: Pat Robertson. Went on to finish second in the Iowa caucuses and won four states in the Republican primary process.
Iowa Caucus winner Bob Dole finished second in the straw poll.
Republican nominee George H.W. Bush finished third in the straw poll.
1979
Straw poll winner: George H.W. Bush. Went on to win the Iowa caucuses and six states in the Republican primary process.
There were two straw polls that year, but none were official Republican Party of Iowa events. Bush won both, while eventual Republican nominee Ronald Reagan finished second in May and fourth in October.
For those of you keep tracking at home, three of the seven Iowa Straw Poll winners went on to win the Iowa caucuses. Two went on to win the Republican nomination the next year.
You could argue then that the winner of the straw poll has a 43 percent chance of winning the caucuses and a 29 percent chance of winning the nomination, but the historical trend was moving toward the poll being unpredictive of future success. It’s increasingly clear that conservative Iowa activists are not representative of those who ultimately participate in the Iowa caucuses, which is increasingly less representative of those who participate in the Republican primary process across the nation.
Despite a poor record of predicting electoral success, the Iowa Straw Poll used to get a lot of attention. Candidates sometimes poured campaign funds and other resources into their straw poll efforts, in hopes that a win would propel them to victory. A poor showing in the straw poll has sometimes prompted candidates to drop out of the race altogether, as Tim Pawlenty did in 2011.
This year, several candidates had already announced their plans to skip the straw poll. Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee and Marco Rubio said they would skip out, while Scott Walker and Rand Paul said they were unsure.
