Vladimir Putin is escalating his destabilization campaign in eastern Ukraine, likely motivated by President Biden’s hesitation in countering Russian aggression.
True, Biden has been president for less than a month. But consider the White House reaction to Russia’s persecution of dissident journalist Alexei Navalny. Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken have at least condemned Navalny’s incarceration. But they have not taken substantive steps to impose costs upon Russia for that injustice. This weakness matters for reasons beyond even human rights. Putin’s treatment of Navalny has distinct importance for U.S. security interests, for example, in terms of deterring the use of chemical weapons.
The White House defends its effective acquiescence to Navalny’s treatment, claiming that it is reviewing Trump-era information in order to inform appropriate action. This is a deceptive excuse. The U.S. government knows exactly what was done to Navalny, by whom, and why. The Biden administration’s hesitation has thus signaled to the Kremlin that the new president prefers caution to confrontation. This is an exceptionally silly thing to do with Putin, who takes personal satisfaction in his professional exploitation of adversaries’ weaknesses.
That takes us back to Ukraine. In recent days, a number of Ukrainian soldiers have been killed by Russian-directed rebels in the contested southeastern Donetsk Oblast. Notably, some of these attacks have occurred proximate to major access routes that would enable further advances into government-held territory. The Kremlin’s message is clear. Led by Russia’s FSB and GRU intelligence services, these attacks on Ukrainian government interests represent Putin’s calculated escalation.
The sniper shooting of a Ukrainian soldier is particularly noteworthy in this regard, evincing as it does Putin’s lack of interest in any pretense of deniability. The Russian security services maintain strict operational authority over the rebel formations arrayed against Ukraine. This authority is maintained by a mixture of shared ideology, bribery, and, where necessary, very aggressive coercion (the Russians are quite happy to kill difficult allies, and they have done so).
Using force, Putin wants to maximize his negotiating position on Ukraine.
Talks to establish a long-term settlement to the Ukraine question have stalled, so Putin wants to pressure President Volodymyr Zelensky to make new concessions. The Russian leader is also likely gambling that the European Union has no appetite for his continued escalation. With the EU now threatening new sanctions on Russia in the aftermath of its foreign policy chief’s disastrous visit to Moscow, Putin might also see Ukraine as a pressure point with which to extract continued EU appeasement. The central point here is that Putin believes he can out-escalate his adversaries in Ukraine.
So assuming Biden means what he says in terms of supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty, what is he going to do about Putin’s escalation?
Biden should have learned from President Barack Obama’s weak response to Russia’s 2016 election interference campaign. Putin doesn’t respond to rhetorical threats. He respects action. It’s no longer enough for Biden to shape his Russia policy around the narrative that “Trump is Putin’s buddy.” Now the buck stops with Biden.
He should immediately introduce unilateral U.S. sanctions on Putin’s top oligarch enablers, including those based in Britain. He should then make clear to Putin that if he keeps doing what he’s now doing in Ukraine, the Russian energy export sector, including Nord Stream II (which should be dead, anyway), is going to get slammed with new sanctions.
And Biden should act quickly.
