The Trump administration has given Israel the go-ahead to assume sovereign control over certain areas of the Palestinian-controlled West Bank, including the Jordan River Valley. But as Israel does so, the United States must reassure King Abdullah II of Jordan.
The key here is that both Israel and Jordan are critically important U.S. allies, and American interests in the Middle East require continuing closeness to both.
Yet, Abdullah is increasingly concerned over the Israeli-Palestinian political crisis. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas warned from the West Bank on Wednesday that the Palestinians no longer recognize existing treaty commitments with Israel or the U.S. And while Abbas is very likely exaggerating here — the West Bank economy and the cronyism sustaining Abbas’s inner circle would collapse were the PA to rupture its security agreements with Israel — tensions are high. Abdullah is feeling the pressure to support his Arab brothers.
In an interview last week with Der Spiegel, Abdullah warned that “if Israel really annexes the West Bank in July, it would lead to a massive conflict with the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.” Questioned as to what he meant, Abdullah responded, “I don’t want to make threats and create a loggerheads atmosphere, but we are considering all options.”
What does this mean for America?
Well, while it’s extraordinarily unlikely that Jordan would start some kind of conflict with Israel — Abdullah knows his forces would lose, badly — Amman could cause significant problems for U.S. interests in the Middle East. Jordan is a primary Arab guarantor of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, providing regional consolidation for American and Israeli security interests. The Jordanian government is also a top U.S. counterterrorism partner, with its GID intelligence service even rivaling Israeli services in utility here. The GID was instrumental, for example, in leading infiltration efforts against the Islamic State. These efforts helped prevent numerous attacks on the West.
Still, while Jordan is heavily reliant on American aid of more than $1 billion each year, Abdullah must balance his close American alliance with populists sentiment. Many Jordanians are deeply skeptical of the U.S., viewing Washington’s support for Israel as a great affront to the Arab-Muslim interest. And while there is a good degree of hypocrisy here, considering Jordan’s less than lovely treatment of Palestinian refugees, populist sentiment matters. With a strong base of Salafi-Jihadist sentiment brewing beneath the surface of Jordanian politics, Abdullah must placate his people in one way or another. An overthrow of Abdullah’s regime would be a calamity for international security.
In turn, the Trump administration must proceed cautiously here.
Washington should consider providing Abdullah with greater aid to consolidate his position. It must also be cleareyed in its dealings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. While the Israeli prime minister’s new unity government will restrain harder-line elements of his coalition base, Netanyahu will seek to maximize his movement into the West Bank before the U.S. November elections. Doing so, Netanyahu believes, will allow him to consolidate his right-wing base amid his ongoing legal troubles and hedge against a less amenable Joe Biden taking office next January. But if Netanyahu acts capriciously, without any regard for Palestinian sensitivities, he risks forcing Abdullah into a visible breach. And that would not be in America’s interest or the interests of regional stability.
