Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker’s re-election victory in a state that twice voted for President Obama instantly catapults him to the top tier of contenders for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, should he choose to run. But beyond the boost to his political career, his win also represents a victory for conservative governance.
When Walker took over as governor in 2011 after being elected during a wave election year for the GOP, he could have pursued the easy path, as Republicans often do — passing a few safe, small-bore policies without upsetting the established order.
Instead, facing a gaping budget hole, he attacked the root problem — public sector unions that were maintaining a stranglehold over the state and its municipalities and school districts.
His common-sense reforms earned him the wrath of unions, which saw him as a threat to their bottom line. Liberal protesters swarmed the capital of Madison. Democratic lawmakers, who depend on political contributions from a robust labor movement, fled the state in a desperate attempt to stop the reforms.
When that failed, his opponents tried lawsuits and launched a flood of unsuccessful attempts to recall GOP officeholders — including Walker himself in 2012. Politically driven prosecutors also launched two sweeping and secretive probes against allies of Walker, none of which has produced any evidence of wrongdoing by the governor despite generating lots of headlines.
Ultimately, his reforms went into effect and the only dire warning of the union officials that came to fruition was that their own and their union-related businesses were less able to plunder taxpayers. By reforming collective bargaining rules, Walker gave greater financial flexibility to state and local governments, allowing them to save money while improving schools. This approach averted massive layoffs and enabled Walker to close the budget gap without simply making across-the-board spending cuts to local governments.
The reforms proved so popular that even his Democratic opponent this year, Mary Burke, didn’t bother running against them.
Now that he has survived a tough re-election campaign, the question instantly turns to whether he wants to mount a challenge for the wide-open GOP presidential nomination.
Although Walker polls in the single digits in most surveys, the 2016 field has no clear front-runner and a number of attributes put him in a unique position.
There is well-publicized split within the Republican Party between its conservative and pragmatic wings, and of all the potential candidates out there, Walker is the one who is most likely to unite the two.
In an interview with the Washington Examiner in March, Walker rejected the idea that there was a tradeoff between conservatism and pragmatism. “You don’t have to compromise one for the other, meaning you can stand up for your principles, you can push your core beliefs, and you can still govern effectively,” Walker said.
The fact that he demonstrated this in Wisconsin is what makes him such a potentially strong candidate. His fight for limited government reforms in the face of a ferocious assault from national liberals endeared him to activists on the right. At the same time, his ability to successfully govern and get re-elected in a blue state is comforting to Establishment Republicans.
In short, conservatives want a fighter and Establishment Republicans want a person who can win. Walker has a great argument that he can do both.
Some analysts, including Ramesh Ponnuru, have questioned whether Walker’s narrow margin of victory will hurt his case as a presidential nominee. But ultimately, it’s better to win narrowly, having some real accomplishments to show for it, than to win easily, having achieved little or nothing in office.
That said, Walker does face a number of obstacles should he run for president.
While other potential 2016 candidates have been able to spend this year starting to prepare for a presidential run — including campaigning nationally, meeting potential donors, studying up on policy — Walker has spent the year in a tough re-election fight. Having just won, it will be difficult to turn around immediately and begin preparing a serious run for president. He has a lot of catching up to do when it comes to national policy and foreign affairs before he is able to field questions confidently.
In the meantime, conservatives have reason to celebrate his victory. Had he lost this governor’s race, it might have discouraged other Republican governors from attempting bold reforms in the future. But Walker’s re-election shows that with enough conviction and fortitude, limited government reforms can be instituted in hostile environments and still translate into political success.
