Democrats need to decide if they want to win back the White House or revel in the fiction of far-left populism.
If they want the former outcome, they should nominate Joe Biden as their 2020 presidential nominee. It’s a relevant concern in that multiple media outlets are now reporting that the former vice president and senator will announce his candidacy next week.
Democrats have three specific reasons to pick Biden.
First, Biden is a center-leftist, not a leftist. Biden doesn’t deride capitalism, values hard work, works with Republicans, and won’t risk America’s financial ruin at the altar of absurd ideologies or Green New Deal spending programs. He’s the safe vote who won’t rock the boat.
Democrats delude themselves if they think America is ready for the overt socialism of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y. Ignoring the opinion polls by lining up to support AOC policy proposals and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., “Medicare for All” and free college tuition plans, Democratic 2020 hopefuls give President Trump the ammunition he needs to destroy them. After all, Trump’s 2020 strategy will focus on matching his base to moderate suburban and working-class voters who might not like him, but like his booming economy and see the president as a safe pair of hands.
Yes, Trump’s erratic behavior is a fetish-focus for the media. But for most Americans, Trump isn’t all that bad, beyond the tweets. He’s been cleared of colluding with Russia, he hasn’t blown up the world, and the economy is showing record employment and reliable growth. To most Americans, these concerns matter far more than the president’s penchant for arrogance and chaos.
In turn, if Democrats nominate a candidate who seeks tens of trillions of dollars in new 10-year spending, new tax rises, and a deference to issues that most people don’t value to be that crucial to their lives, such as identity politics, they risk swing voters viewing Trump as the lesser of two evils. These voters might have to hold their nose voting for Trump, but they’ll see Trump as less risky than socialist adventurism.
Second, Biden can challenge Trump on Trump’s strongest territory. Whoever challenges Trump must be capable of recapturing the hearts and minds of voters Trump took from Democrats in states such as Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. That means a candidate who can speak to working-class voters’ fears and aspirations. It means a candidate who can articulate why wanting secure borders is not racist, but also why Trump’s fiery immigration rhetoric doesn’t speak to a better American nature. Biden is made for this.
It also means sidelining identity politics. Voters want better lives for their families and a president who gets them rather than begrudges them. That’s how Trump, for all his flaws, defeated Hillary Clinton.
The Democratic candidate must thus also be capable of taking Trump to task on his own bullish terms. If Democrats pick someone like Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. who is uncharismatic and uncomfortable with the rough-and-tumble of a Trump-driven election cycle, they will fail to attract the voters who have abandoned them in Trump’s favor.
Third, Biden has vast campaign experience, significant fundraising potential, and could unify the party. Biden knows what to expect from a presidential campaign, he knows how to attract big donors and top organizers — an especially important concern at the local level — and his record as President Barack Obama’s vice president means he can unify the party.
The basic point here is that Biden can hit the general election ground running. While we can certainly expect a good number of gaffes from Biden, he won’t let Trump master the narrative, as Clinton did in 2016. Yes, some Democrats will lament a candidate who isn’t a minority or a woman because identity politics runs strong in the Democratic base, but Biden’s loyalty to the nation’s first black president will cover him there. Democrats must also remember that, to win in 2020, their base must also include the union members they lost in 2016. Having a base of “Bernie bros” and socialist-minded millennials might sound clever, but their numbers are tiny nationwide, and they cannot deliver 270 electoral college votes.
Put simply, Biden’s odd penchant for sniffing women’s hair aside, he is by far the best-placed Democrat to defeat Donald Trump.
