On July 30, President Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela plans to enact a “constituent assembly.” Stacked full of cronies, the “constituents” will allow Maduro to sidestep the National Assembly and rewrite the Constitution.
In other words, destroy the last lingering remnants of Venezuelan democracy.
Fortunately, President Trump isn’t sitting idle in face of this attack on the Venezuelan people. On Monday evening, Trump promised “strong and swift economic actions” if Maduro goes ahead with his plans.
Trump should go bold with these sanctions and ban Venezuelan imports of oil to the United States.
According to the U.S. government’s Energy Information Agency, in 2016, Venezuela was the third largest source of U.S. imported oil. Only Canada and Saudi Arabia provided more oil to the U.S. market. But with oil accounting for around 95 percent of Venezuela’s total exports, an oil ban would have an outsized effect.
Still, to truly send Maduro a big message, Trump should persuade Canada and India to match his action and cut their own imports of Venezuelan oil. Together with the United States, those nations account for a significant chunk of Venezuela’s total exports (China and Mexico are two other big destinations). Were they to join with the U.S., Trump would be able to create a short to medium term stranglehold on Venezuela’s foreign capital supply as the country scrambled to find new customers.
In that scenario, the regime faces catastrophe. After all, suffering from years of mismanagement by Maduro and his predecessor, Lieutenant Colonel Lunatic, Venezuela’s oil industry is already imploding. Having failed to invest in new oil wells, supply trends look very negative for the coming years.
Moreover, I think Prime Ministers Narendra Modi and Justin Trudeau might well listen to Trump’s argument. If nothing else, both would find it hard to openly oppose a humanitarian effort to save Venezuelans from their dictator. This is especially true of Trudeau, who revels in his image as the poster child of the contemporary progressives.
Another important point to note here is that the impact of an oil embargo would not hurt the Venezuelan people. Because of the Maduro regime’s immense corruption, foreign capital flows from oil sales directly into the bank accounts of senior officials. The people are left to starve, or die in hospitals without medicine. To save them, the U.S. must pressure their prison masters.
The key here is that losing foreign export markets, the military might finally decide enough is enough and throw out Maduro’s regime.
What’s sad, though, is that Trump’s moral leadership against Maduro is a new dynamic. Until recently, Maduro was a cause célèbre of the Western left. They, albeit always absurdly, contrasted Chavez and Maduro’s beneficent socialism with the injustices of American capitalism. Obama largely ignored Maduro rather than confront him.
But as the nation with the world’s largest oil reserves starves to death, the truth is becoming unavoidable.
And when this crisis ends, Venezuelans will remember those, like Trump, who stood with them, and others, like Bernie Sanders, Oliver Stone, Sean Penn, and Jeremy Corbyn, who stood for kleptocracy.
