Responding to Russia’s war on Ukraine, NATO is operating a near persistent air umbrella above Ukraine-bordering NATO member states. But U.S. intelligence, fighter, and air-to-air refueling aircraft are bearing by far the outsize burden of this responsibility. Without the United States, the skies of Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania would be far less secure.
This is worth noting in light of President Joe Biden’s attendance at a special leaders summit at NATO headquarters next Thursday. The topic will be Ukraine and the alliance’s response to Vladimir Putin’s war against that European democracy.
But Biden should bring two specific messages to Brussels. First, he should call for Ukraine’s allies to do much more to build their own defense capabilities immediately. Biden should note that the rising security challenge of China will force America to divert increasing military resources to the Indo-Pacific in the coming years. That will include some of the aircraft now flying over NATO’s eastern flank.
Second, the president should make clear that a new era in relations with Russia has begun. He should explain why it would be a grave mistake for any European power to offer sanctions relief or rebuild trade links with Russia unless and until Putin has ended his war of aggression. To do otherwise would be to reward the most grievous destruction of peace, democracy, and security in the 21st century.
There is at least some early cause for optimism on the defense responsibility count.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz deserves immense credit for his decision to inject more than $110 billion into the German armed forces. This will see Germany meet the NATO minimum target of 2%-of-GDP defense spending after many years of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s inexcusable neglect. To be clear, Merkel was a disaster for Western security. President Emmanuel Macron of France, the leader of the second-most powerful economy in the European Union, also has said he will increase defense spending in response to Putin’s war.
Yet even as he applauds these moves, Biden must impress upon these and other European leaders that additional defense spending, while very welcome, cannot serve as an excuse for continued trade and energy ties with Russia. Italy and Spain, the third- and fourth-most powerful economies, illustrate this problem.
Both Rome and Spain spend far less than the 2%-of-GDP NATO minimum target. And Italy, in particular, openly prioritizes trade with Russia above European security. The U.S. should thus be skeptical of European pledges to increase defense spending until that spending is actually delivered into action. The U.S. must ensure that Nord Stream 2, for example, stays dead.
How to exert pressure?
Hopefully, honest words will suffice. But harsher measures may be necessary. The Pentagon’s use of bases in Italy and Spain for access to the Mediterranean Sea can no longer be an excuse for turning a blind eye to Madrid and Rome’s appeasement of Moscow. If necessary, Greece or France can fill the Navy’s Mediterranean access needs.
The key for Biden, then, is to emphasize the degree to which the European security environment has changed and to make clear that the U.S. can no longer be expected to fill in an abyss-sized gap of European defense deficiencies. Biden should pledge America’s continuing support for NATO and Europe, but he must make clear that a new day has arrived.
