Within hours of the first reported coronavirus deaths in the United States, grocery stores in California completely sold out of Clorox wipes and toilet paper. Hand sanitizer and face masks are now nearly impossible to find nationwide, so some have discovered ways to make their own sanitizer from aloe vera gel and rubbing alcohol and face masks from articles of clothing or plastic bags.
The public is preparing for a pandemic, which is exactly what the coronavirus has become, according to the World Health Organization. Yet, many of our government and health officials continue to insist that the virus is no more dangerous than the seasonal flu, which killed more than 37,000 Americans this winter, as President Trump so aptly reminded us.
To an extent, Trump’s point is a fair one. Humans catch, fight, and even die from various diseases, bugs, and viruses all the time, so public panic isn’t warranted. But it is counterproductive to downplay the seriousness of the coronavirus by comparing it to the seasonal flu. Sure, its symptoms are similar, but COVID-19’s mortality rate is much higher, and it spreads much faster than the flu, according to Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
COVID-19 is at least 10 times “more lethal” than the seasonal flu, Fauci told the House Oversight and Reform Committee on Wednesday. We also don’t know much about it, whereas the seasonal flu is predictable. The flu’s symptoms are immediately recognizable, and its treatments are fairly straightforward.
But the coronavirus is tricky. We don’t know how many people have it because some show symptoms and some don’t. As a result, we don’t know how to prevent its spread beyond reducing physical contact and promoting sanitary precautions.
We don’t know how to treat it, either. Most of our immune systems have not been exposed to COVID-19, and we don’t yet have vaccines or therapeutics, though both are in the works.
The one thing we know for sure about COVID-19, said Fauci, is that “we will see more cases, and things will get worse than they are right now.”
Scott Gottlieb, the former FDA commissioner, put it this way: “China didn’t shut down their economy because they had a bad flu season. The case fatality rate here is going to be higher all through the age ranges. This is a more severe disease.”
The upside is that, unlike the seasonal flu, the coronavirus can be contained, according to WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. “We don’t even talk about containment for seasonal flu — it’s just not possible,” he said during a briefing last week. “But it is possible for COVID-19. We don’t do contact-tracing for seasonal flu, but countries should do it for COVID-19 because it will prevent infections and save lives. Containment is possible.”
Right now, the WHO’s estimated mortality rate for the coronavirus is 2%. That could be closer to 1% by now, Fauci told the House, which means it’s going down (though the mortality rate is still much higher among the sick and elderly). The seasonal flu has a much lower mortality rate at 0.1%. And the H1N1 “swine flu,” which is the most recent public health crisis the U.S. experienced, has an even lower mortality rate of about 0.01%-0.08%.
Bottom line: The coronavirus is very different from past mass illnesses the U.S. has experienced, and it is much more serious. That doesn’t mean it’s time to panic. But it is time to prepare. And that means we should take it seriously. “It is a unique virus,” Ghebreyesus explained, “with unique characteristics,” and it should be treated as such.
