Mike Pence threw Donald Trump a lifeline Tuesday night. Will he take it?
No, Pence’s debate performance against Tim Kaine probably won’t make up for Trump’s showing against Hillary Clinton last week. There is no precedent for a vice presidential debate doing that.
Consider: Dan Quayle had one of the worst debate moments ever when he made the infamous and ill-advised Jack Kennedy comparison in his 1988 debate with Lloyd Bentsen. It didn’t matter; George H. Bush won.
Four years later, Quayle had a much improved debate performance against Al Gore. He arguably won. It again didn’t matter and Bush lost, receiving the smallest share of the popular vote of any Republican since Alf Landon in 1936 and any incumbent president since William Howard Taft in 1912.
This race maybe be different because it is closer, has been more volatile and Pence might reach some Republicans not totally sold on Trump. But Pence has set an example for how Trump can win his next debate.
The one criticism observers, especially Democrats, keep leveling at Pence was that he didn’t exactly defend Trump every time he was attacked. Kaine raised this objection in real time, repeatedly saying things like “I am interested to hear whether he’ll defend his running mate’s not releasing taxes and not paying taxes” and “I cannot believe that Governor Pence would sit here and defend his running mate’s claim that we should create a deportation force.”
If Kaine didn’t hear a defense, he would promptly chastise Pence. “Six times tonight, I have said to Governor Pence I can’t imagine how you can defend your running mate’s position on one issue after the next,” Kaine said. “And in all six cases, he’s refused to defend his running mate.”
That’s going to be a major theme of the articles and fact checks written in the aftermath of the vice presidential debate. But so what? Debates are won on offense, not defense.
Candidates appear before large television audiences to push their own messages, not to reinforce their opponents’.
Trump was competitive in the portion of the first debate where he was criticizing Clinton and advocating his own brand of economic nationalism on trade. When he started losing his cool and responding to her attacks — two things Pence consistently avoided — he began to unravel.
The end result was a dip in the polls after spending nearly all of September catching up to and then bypassing Clinton.
When Clinton brings up Trump’s tax returns, Trump must pivot to Clinton’s emails. When Clinton assails Trump’s business record, Trump must say that both candidates have benefited from the “rigged” system but only he is running to change it. The less time that is spent on Alicia Machado or birtherism, the better. Let Clinton be the only one to talk about it.
Pence’s debate performance should be the model for Trump. Will the top of the ticket follow the Indiana governor’s example?
At least one report suggests the answer could be no. CNBC’s John Harwood tweeted that an adviser to the Republican presidential nominee told him, “Pence won overall, but lost with Trump.”
Why? Because Trump “can’t stand to be upstaged.”
Even if that is untrue, Clinton is certain to try to bait Trump about Pence’s debate performance. She will say his own running mate won’t defend him. She will point out to differences between Trump and Pence, saying they show how Trump is out of the bipartisan mainstream.
Clinton wants Trump to unravel, to be unhinged. Pence showed that even with Trump’s baggage, these debates can be won if you focus on Clinton’s flaws instead of doing that.
When the next debate happens in St. Louis on Sunday night, Trump should copy Pence and avoid doing Clinton’s bidding.
