Facing popular protests across Belarus in response to his Aug. 9 election theft, Belorussian President Alexander Lukashenko has invited Russia to save him and steal his nation.
Russian President Vladimir Putin views the incorporation of Belarus into Russia as a top priority. And with Lukashenko now requesting security assistance, Putin has new leverage to extract his own concessions from the dictator. Senior leaders and operations officers from the Russian Federal Security Service landed in Minsk, Belarus, on Tuesday evening, and Russia is moving military assets toward its Belorussian border. The Russians sense opportunity, here, in the absence of warnings from the Trump administration and the European Union against their interference.
On Wednesday, Lukashenko blamed NATO for inciting his people to rise against him. He told his security council that “the Ministry of Defense should pay special attention to the movement of NATO troops to the territory of Poland and Lithuania … Therefore, we must definitely take measures and not hesitate to withdraw our armed forces and equipment to the directions of their movement.” He warned NATO that, “on the border with Belarus, conducting exercises now is counterproductive. They must understand this, and they will be responsible for it if something happens.”
This is all about distraction.
There are no major NATO exercises or operations currently underway near the Belorussian border. Moreover, the popular unrest across Belarus is not a function of foreign infiltrators but rather a symptom of the broader national anger against Lukashenko’s rule. The United States and EU responses to Lukashenko’s electoral rigging and ensuing violent repression have been cautious at best.
Still, Lukashenko needs to cast the protesters as outside agitators, both to delegitimize them in the eyes of their fellow citizens and to provide himself with political cover to crush them. Evincing as much, he also told his officials that action was needed to “prevent militants, weapons, ammunition, [and] money from other countries from entering Belarus to finance the riots.” This is rhetoric straight from the Putin narrative. So also is Lukashenko’s assertion that NATO seeks to turn opinion against Russia. Hence why Lukashenko also warned that the protesters “push us to a clash with our historically brotherly people — Russians. This must not be allowed. Therefore, the media must become more active [in tamping down these sentiments].”
Time is of the essence.
Putin evidently senses an opportunity to move against those peaceful Belorussians, who are now demanding freedom. If the Russian leader believes he can do so without incurring any major cost, he will. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and his EU counterpart should immediately warn that Moscow’s interference will result in significant new sanctions.
