It’s a toss-up, and that’s being generous.
Christine Blasey Ford has been testifying in the Senate Judiciary Committee for the better part of three hours now. She has been sincere, believable, and sympathetic. She has not, however, offered any new evidence to corroborate her story that Brett Kavanaugh attempted to rape her when they were high school students.
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Soon, Kavanaugh will give his rebuttal, but aside from some old calendars that cannot disprove allegations, he likely won’t have any evidence to offer.
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Absent anything new, the hearings are just another prime time appearance to determine who to trust in an unfortunate he-said, she-said scenario. Despite Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley’s best efforts, this isn’t going to be used as a fact-finding expedition. It will be exploited as political theater, and Democrats know this.
Take Sen. Mazie Hirono, D-Hawaii, who has made a national name for herself as the loosest of cannons. Speaking with NPR, even Hirono admitted that it comes down to a personal judgment call, not a hard-and-fast determination of guilt.
In this case, Hirono is right. There isn’t any corroborating evidence, just a lot of allegations. Republicans seem sincere in sorting through each, and, if the charges can’t be proved, Kavanaugh should be confirmed. But the hearing isn’t happening in a vacuum. It is happening on live cable television where innocence and guilt are determined by sympathy.
[Also read: Mazie Hirono’s campaign apologizes for fundraising email sent while Christine Blasey Ford testifies]
If Kavanaugh wants to make it to the Supreme Court, he has to recognize these new rules. He can’t be an unfeeling robot like he was during the initial confirmation process. He has to emote. Otherwise, his career will be tipped away.
