Palestinian terrorist group Hamas is arranging for hundreds of thousands of Palestinians to march on the Israeli-Palestinian border next Monday and Tuesday. Addressing Palestinians in Gaza, Hamas’ leader there portrayed the protests as a peaceful effort to mourn historic wrongs.
In reality, this is a Hamas effort to weaponize what the Palestinians refer to as “Nabka” or the “Catastrophe,” when hundreds of thousands of Palestinians abandoned their homes during the 1948 war with Israel. But Hamas isn’t really interested in remembering history, it simply wants to force a confrontation between Palestinian civilians and Israeli soldiers guarding the border with Gaza.
I think Hamas has three particular motivations.
First, the group wants to distract Gaza residents from the pathetic economic and social conditions Hamas governance has given them. Unemployment in Gaza is rampant, wages are spiraling downwards, and hundreds of thousands who rely on the Palestinian Authority or Hamas for their salaries are going without pay. By focusing public anger on Israel, Hamas hopes to distract Palestinians away from the terrorist group’s governing failures.
Second, Hamas wants to force Israel into killing hundreds, perhaps thousands, of Palestinians in order to prevent them from storming across the Israeli border. Hamas knows that while the Israelis can use tear gas and nonlethal weapons up to a point, they cannot constrain a mass movement on the border without employing lethal force. Hamas thus wants to send as many Palestinians to their deaths as possible, secure in the knowledge that those deaths will attract widespread international condemnation on Israel.
Third, Hamas wants to recenter itself alongside the Iranians and the broader Islamic resistance narrative that sustains groups like the Lebanese Hezbollah. Hamas is embarrassed that astride its governance failures it has been unable to carry out a major attack on Israel for a number of years. It might be crude (and speaks greatly to Hamas’ nature), but Palestinian bodies filled with Israeli bullets will give the terrorist group renewed credibility. That credibility is crucial if Hamas is to upgrade its funding provision from donors in Qatar and Iran. This is also a concern for the U.S.: With the arrival of a U.S. delegation to open the U.S. embassy in Jerusalem on Tuesday, Iranian actors or Hamas may attempt a terrorist attack.
Still, the ultimate point here is simple and sad: Next week will be a tough one for Palestinians.
