Adm. James “Ace” Lyons, who died last year at 91, was angry.
Charged with drawing up a war plan in 1979 to compel the Islamic Republic of Iran to release the 52 hostages it had taken, Lyons sought to impose maximum pressure on the regime. Revolution, hostage-taking, and the departure of foreign investors had decimated their economy. What little cash Iran had came from oil, most of which it exported from a few off-shore terminals. More than 90% of Iranian oil exports came from the Kharg Island terminal, for example. Lyons’ idea was simple: Take Iranian oil infrastructure offline and blockade Iranian ports until revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini released American hostages. Seizing key ports to compel a change of Iranian policy was an idea with historical precedent dating back to the 1856-57 Anglo-Persian War.
President Jimmy Carter, however, had different ideas. National Security Council aide Gary Sick reportedly (according to those present) leaked word that the White House crisis response group had decided to take military action off the table; Carter preferred to try to negotiate the hostages’ release.
In hindsight, Lyons’ approach may have been better: When Iranian hostage-takers heard they faced no military action, they upped their demands and what was initially thought of as a 48- to 72-hour episode transformed into 444 days.
There are many outstanding questions about the latest attack on Saudi infrastructure, most notably whether Houthis in Yemen or a Shi’ite militia in Iraq launched the drones (Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Iraq was not to blame). Ultimately, that question is secondary: Iran’s ties to both the Houthis in Yemen and several (not all) Shi’ite militias in Iraq are extensive. In January 2015, Ali Shirazi, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s representative to the Qods Force, declared, “The Houthis are a version of Hezbollah, and this group will use the stage for confronting the enemies of Islam.” Five months later, Khamenei addressed the question of Iran’s Houthi support directly. “We support them within the scope of our capabilities because it is our responsibility to do so,” he said.
That either accelerates attacks into Saudi Arabia is indicative that they are acting as Iran’s proxies, for such moves are neither in Yemen nor Iraq’s interests. If, on one-hand, the drone strikes were Houthi — repeating with drones what the Yemeni Shi’ite movement had earlier tried with missiles — it deflates Western pressure to withdraw support for Saudi Arabia’s war efforts inside Yemen just at a time when momentum seemed to have turned against Riyadh. If, on the other hand, the drone strikes originated in Iraq, it confirms the worst assessments of Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi’s effectiveness and sincerity, makes Iraq a legitimate target for Iran’s opponents, and risks a perception that Iraq is turning into the equivalent of Hezbollah-run southern Lebanon. Rather, it seems that Iran is utilizing proxies and drones in an asymmetric attempt to collapse Saudi Arabia’s economy.
To assume that Saudi Arabia, however, will subject itself to such a game is risky, for Saudi authorities understand Tehran’s goals. It may also be a false assumption on Tehran’s part to assume that Saudi Arabia will not respond directly. Just as Saudi Arabia is vulnerable (the Red Sea port of Yanbu, for example) stands out at night against the desert like a lone Christmas tree against black velvet, Iran’s oil infrastructure is extraordinarily vulnerable.
Sanctions are reversable — the complete destruction of Kharg or Iran’s few other outlets would render the question of sanctions largely moot.
Saudi authorities might curtail oil supply as a wake-up call to both the East and West, forcing the U.S. Congress, for example, to consider just what it would mean if Iran or its proxies controlled the Bab el-Mandeb. With Iranian-backed aggression increasing, however, the Saudi military might have another plan for Iran.
Michael Rubin (@Mrubin1971) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. He is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and a former Pentagon official.
