We’ve finally reached Super Bowl 55. This is probably the greatest matchup that the NFL could have dreamed of: Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, defending Super Bowl champions. Let’s break down the game:
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6:30 p.m. on CBS)
Quarterbacks
We get a matchup of two of the best quarterbacks in football leading the two best passing offenses of the regular season.
Mahomes has yet to throw an interception this postseason, while Brady threw a few against the Green Bay Packers in the NFC championship game. Mahomes, on the other hand, had to leave the divisional round against the Cleveland Browns due to an injury. He didn’t seem to have many issues at all against the Buffalo Bills.
Brady is the greatest quarterback of all time, and Mahomes is the current face of the game at the position. What’s not to like?
Advantage: Mahomes has better numbers and a more awe-inspiring playmaking ability, but Brady is the GOAT. I’m calling this one a push.
Running Backs
Darrel Williams has been impressive this postseason for the Chiefs, averaging 5 yards per carry. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been banged up but should play, and Le’Veon Bell is listed as probable on the injury report. Bell has been used more as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, and I expect all three to get touches.
Mahomes isn’t Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, but he’s definitely mobile and can beat you with his feet. Look for him to break off some runs and pick up some first downs.
Leonard Fournette is averaging over 100 yards per game from scrimmage. He’s averaging just over 70 rushing yards per game and 34 receiving yards per game out of the backfield. Ronald Jones II can’t be ignored, but Fournette has established himself as the feature back in the Buccaneers offense during the playoffs.
Advantage: Tampa Bay has been more effective running the ball in the playoffs and has the better combination of running backs. The edge goes to the Buccaneers.
Wide Receivers
Tampa Bay’s Chris Godwin and Mike Evans have combined for 24 catches, three touchdowns, nearly 400 receiving yards, and five catches of 20 yards or more in their first three games of the postseason.
While Kansas City’s Tyreek Hill has yet to score a touchdown, he does have 17 catches for 282 yards in just two games, and 152 of those yards have come after the catch. That’s one of the reasons why four of those 17 have been for 20 yards or more. By comparison, Evans has 24 yards after the catch, and Godwin has 95.
Advantage: Even though Hill is incredible and as dynamic a player as there is in the NFL, I think the tandem of Evans and Godwin and the potential to get a productive Antonio Brown back gives Tampa Bay an ever-so-slight edge.
Tight Ends
After a historic regular season for the Chiefs, Travis Kelce hasn’t cooled off one bit. He’s averaging over 113 yards per game with his 21 catches for 227 yards and three touchdowns.
Cameron Brate has been solid for the Buccaneers. He has 11 catches and a touchdown in three games and is averaging just under 50 yards per contest. Rob Gronkowski made a huge play in the NFC championship game against the Packers but has been relatively quiet otherwise this postseason. It would be naive to believe he won’t make an impact in the Super Bowl, considering the history and chemistry that he and Brady share.
Advantage: The duo of Gronkowski and Brate isn’t enough to overcome the nightmare that Kelce presents to opposing defenses. Kansas City definitely has the advantage in this matchup.
Defense
Todd Bowles, the defensive coordinator of the Buccaneers, and Steve Spagnuolo, the defensive coordinator of the Chiefs, have had two weeks to prepare.
The Chiefs defense is underrated but has a couple of big-name contributors in Tyrann Mathieu and Chris Jones. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers defense is tied for fourth in the league in sacks and is aided by the fact that Kansas City lost its starting left tackle, Eric Fisher, due to a torn Achilles tendon in the AFC title game.
In the regular season, the Chiefs were 14th in defending the pass while the Buccaneers were ranked 21st. However, Tampa Bay had the NFL’s top run defense, while Kansas City struggled and was 21st in the league.
Possessions will be at a premium. Tampa Bay’s defense has forced seven turnovers in three games, but the Buccaneers defense will have its work cut out for it in trying to pressure Mahomes and force him into mistakes.
The Chiefs had the benefit of the bye week and didn’t have to play an extra game, so they might be a bit fresher, but I expect both teams to be well-rested since they each had a week off before the Super Bowl.
Advantage: Tampa Bay is the clear winner, with the league’s best run defense, a great defensive line, and excellent linebackers.
Kicker
Ryan Succop has been a perfect 8-for-8 kicking field goals this postseason for the Buccaneers and was a spectacular 28-for-31 during the regular season.
Harrison Butker was even more impressive in the regular season, going 25-for-27 and making all four of his field goals from 50 yards or more. In fact, he drilled a 58-yarder on the road in overtime to beat the Los Angeles Chargers. He’s 4-for-5 this postseason and converted his only field goal attempt of 50 yards or more.
Advantage: Butker and Succop are both excellent kickers, but Butker has nailed some clutch field goals from very long range. I’ll give the slight edge to Kansas City.
The line: Kansas City Chiefs (-3.0)
The pick: Since last year’s playoffs, the Kansas City Chiefs have lost only one football game with their main starters playing the whole game. I think Mahomes and the Chiefs offense will score late to take the lead and win back-to-back Super Bowls. I’m picking the Chiefs to win and cover.
