Russia reacted fiercely on Monday to the Sunday U.S. downing of a Syrian fighter jet.
In that incident, a Syrian Su-22 fighter was destroyed by a U.S. Navy F/A-18E fighter after it had bombed Kurdish forces.
Two immediate takeaways here.
First, it is ill-advised to deploy an aerial relic from the 1960s against an F/A-18E Super Hornet. Second, and more importantly, the U.S. must now deter Russian reaction.
After all, Russia has pledged that it will now radar-target U.S. aircraft. “All flying objects,” Russia’s defense ministry warned, “including planes and drones of the international coalition, detected west of the Euphrates, will be followed by Russian air defense systems as targets.” Russia additionally announced a suspension of the so-called “deconfliction hotline.” That hotline is used to avoid inadvertent hostilities between U.S./allied forces and Russian, Syrian, and Iranian forces.
What Russia is doing here represents an escalation that requires American answer. This latest test is just one element of an effort by Russia, Iran, Syrian President Bashar Assad, and various Shia militias to displace the U.S. from Syria and destroy the moderate Sunni rebel groups fighting Assad. As I’ve explained, U.S. national security interests demand that we do not yield to this pressure.
It’s not just about strategy, either. At the most basic level, the U.S. cannot sit idle while Russian air defense networks target U.S. air crews.
It is unlikely that the Russians would actually shoot down a U.S. aircraft, but that danger cannot be discounted. If a U.S. aircraft is targeted by Russian air defense networks, its crew face immediate risk. The deployed Russian air defense capability is advanced and capable, and includes the S-400 system. As Sebastien Roblin notes, this multi-layered air defense network is a serious threat.
Still, Russia’s aggression also endangers coalition ground forces. By suspending the hotline, for example, Russia claims a pretense of deniability should Syrian or Iranian aligned forces now target American personnel.
All of this requires a response.
So what should the U.S. do?
Well, first, the U.S. military should ensure that U.S. forces in Syria have the counter-air defense capabilities they need. The U.S. currently has at least one electronic warfare unit, the VAQ-131 fighter squadron, deployed with Carrier Air Wing 8. Assigned to the George H.W. Bush carrier strike group, that squadron is supporting U.S. forces in Syria. VAQ-131 should now be ordered to disrupt Russian targeting systems.
Second, if U.S. forces are targeted, they should be authorized to counter-target Russian air defense networks. While the Russians are confident in their own abilities, they also fear (with good reason) the U.S. air-to-ground warfare doctrine, because that doctrine rests on the annihilation of an adversary’s air defense network. The U.S. has invested significant time, money, and training in building a force that can destroy an enemy ground, sea, or air based radar tracking system the moment it comes online. Again, Russia knows this. Correspondingly, by activating this network, Putin can be compelled to get back in his box. Putin is aggressive, but he’s also a realist. He knows Russia would lose a shooting match in Syrian skies.
To be sure, none of this is as easy to do as it is to write. Nevertheless, the U.S. military is the most capable force in Syria. With our national interests at risk, we must show we will not back down.
