In July, I wrote an article asking how long Russian soldiers would hold on in Ukraine. Less than a month later, we are seeing soldiers, and now units, questioning why Russia is at war in Ukraine and refusing to fight — publicly.
The Security Service of Ukraine has been efficient in documenting disgruntled phone conversations, texts, and social media posts between soldiers and their family members questioning why they are fighting in Ukraine, lamenting casualty rates within their units, and fearing for their own personal safety. It has given analysts some insight into morale within the Russian ranks, but it’s still a carefully crafted message by the SSU, designed to influence.
Ukraine’s recent successes in Crimea and Kherson Oblast have further exposed the fractures taking place within those Russian ranks. The country’s sources lend additional credibility to the message “Moscow, we have a problem.”
The paratrooper is considered one of the best-trained, best-equipped, and most loyal soldiers in the Russian army; Russia’s Air Assault Troops, the Vozdushno Desantnye Voyska, are among the most elite in the Russian military. So, when Pavel Filatyev, a former Russian paratrooper assigned to the 56th Air Assault Regiment, dropped a 141-page grievance on his VKontakte social media page publicly condemning Russia’s “special military action” in Ukraine, it was significant. Filatyev proclaimed the Kremlin’s justification for invading Ukraine was “a lie” and that they were “simply destroying towns and not actually liberating anyone.” He went on to say that his fellow troops were “tired, hungry, and disillusioned” and that they were “ill-equipped and given little explanation for the invasion.”
Another indicator that Moscow may have a problem comes from a U.K. Ministry of Defense intelligence report about a military unit from the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic delivering “a declaration outlining their refusal to be deployed as part of offensive operations in Donestk Oblast.” The report specified that that unit had “done their duty securing the Luhansk Oblast” but was unwilling to fight in Donetsk Oblast. Granted, this is not a Russian formation, rather, an auxiliary force used to augment Russian ground forces, but it’s indicative of the mindset soldiers in the Donbas have toward doing the bidding of Russia.
Gen. George Patton once said, “You are not beaten until you admit it.” Russian forces and their surrogates are close to that point. Are we any closer to a Russian battalion tactical group refusing to follow orders, or worse, surrendering? Ukraine’s continued success on the battlefield, such as Tuesday’s strike on a building that housed the local administration headquarters in the center of separatist-controlled Donetsk, will determine that, but we are approaching a breaking point. Losing can be contagious.
Jonathan Sweet (@JESweet2022) is a retired Army colonel and served 30 years as a military intelligence officer. His background includes tours of duty with the 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault), the DIA, the NSA, and the NGA. He led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012-14, working with NATO partners in the Black Sea and Baltics.
