Democrats face long, but not impossible, odds of retaking the House of Representatives.
According to Betfair and PredictIt, they have only a 9 percent chance of retaking the House. PredictWise gives them an 8 percent chance. The odds took a tumble in the last week when the FBI announced it was reopening its investigation into Hillary Clinton.
Various political forecasters, including Cook Political Report, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, project Democrats to gain ground, but only about half the net gain of 30 seats they would need to regain control.
Which is to say, if Democrats are going to retake the House, they’re going to need to overperform. To regain control, they have to win almost every district that’s considered leaning in their direction, plus pure toss-up districts, in addition to 10 seats that seem to be leaning toward Republican victories.
Here are 10 seats that would fall into that category: Seats leaning toward GOP victories. If the Democrats manage to win these seats, it means they’ve overperformed in toss-up districts and would probably be able to form a slim majority.
All 10 seats are currently occupied by Republicans.
California 21 – Rep. David Valadao
This may be one of the more challenging seats for Republicans to hold. It’s listed as a “lean Republican” seat by Cook and Sabato, but PredictWise gives it a 51 percent chance of being won by Democrats. The district usually votes two percentage points more Democratic compared to the rest of the nation, according to the Cook partisan voting index.
Valadao has served the district for two terms, winning both of his first two general elections with 58 percent support. In California, members of all political parties run together on the primary ballot with the top two vote-getters facing off in the general election. Valadao got 54 percent in the primary and faces off against Democrat Emilio Huerta, who got 24 percent. The Democrat who came in third place got 22 percent.
Indiana 9 – Rep. Todd Young (running for Senate)
Young is leaving the seat to run for the Senate in an election that could also decide control there (though the election seems to be leaning toward a Democratic victory). The district’s Cook partisan voting index is even, meaning the district votes for Republicans and Democrats at about the same rate as the nation as a whole. Republican Trey Hollingsworth, who got 34 percent in the primary, faces off against Democrat Shelli Yoder, who got 70 percent.
Kansas 3 – Rep. Kevin Yoder
Yoder has represented the district for three terms, winning his general elections with at least 58 percent of the vote each time. Yoder faces off against Jay Sidie, who got 42 percent in the Democratic primary.
Michigan 7 – Rep. Tim Walberg
Walberg has represented the district for the last three terms, in addition to a term in 2007-2008 before losing re-election. Now in his bid for re-election he faces off against Democrat Gretchen Driskell, who served in the Michigan House of Representatives for four years.
Minnesota 3 – Rep. Erik Paulsen
Paulsen has represented the district for four terms. He’s running against Democrat Terri Bonoff, who’s served in the Minnesota State Senate since 2005.
Montana at-large – Rep. Ryan Zinke
Zinke is a freshman in the house. He won the 2014 election with 55 percent support. Now he’s running against Denise Juneau, who’s been the Montana superintendent of public instruction since 2008.
New York 24 – Rep. John Katko
Katko is a freshman, winning his first house election in 2014 by 20 percentage points. He faces off against Democrat Colleen Deacon, who won her primary with 50 percent support.
The Cook partisan voting index says this district generally gives Democrats 5 percentage points more of the vote than the rest of the country. PredictWise gives Deacon a 57 percent chance of winning, but Cook, Sabato and Rothenberg & Gonzales say it’s leaning toward a Republican victory.
Utah 4 – Rep. Mia Love
Love is the first black female Republican in Congress, initially winning election in 2014 with 51 percent of the vote.
She previously lost this district in 2012 by just 0.3 percentage points to Congressman Jim Matheson. Matheson retired before the 2014 election, and Love now faces off against Doug Owens, the Democrat she beat in 2014.
Virginia 5 – Rep. Robert Hurt (retiring)
With Hurt retiring, this contest pits Republican Tom Garrett, who’s served in the state senate since 2012, against Democrat Jane Dittmar. The district hasn’t been represented by a Democrat since redistricting after the 2010 census.
Wisconsin 8 – Rep. Reid Ribble (retiring)
Ribble is retiring, leaving Republican Mike Gallagher running against Democrat Tom Nelson. The district hasn’t been represented by a Democrat since redistricting in 2010.
Jason Russell is the contributors editor for the Washington Examiner.
