One year ago, Venezuela’s National Assembly president, Juan Guaido, assumed the constitutional role of interim president, replacing illegitimate dictator Nicolas Maduro. Washington’s support for Guaido brought multitudes to the streets and helped him gain diplomatic recognition from some 60 countries. It seemed as though Maduro had met his match as the full weight of U.S. sanctions and diplomatic isolation piled on his regime in an attempt to force a political transition.

In a stunning about-face that shows Maduro’s resilience, U.S. diplomats recently endorsed negotiations and elections. As if the “maximum pressure” campaign of 2019 had never happened, the peremptory calls that “Maduro must go” have faded. Essentially, the leverage gained by U.S. sanctions has been squandered by diplomats who failed to understand the toughness of their foes and the weakness of their allies. Unauthorized outreach to Maduro and his top cronies by President Trump’s lawyer Rudy Giuliani and by Academi (formerly Blackwater) founder Erik Prince injected further ambiguity into an already muddled U.S. strategy.