China’s stand-off missiles pose a increasingly significant problem for the U.S.
On Thursday, China announced the deployment of its new intermediate range ballistic missile, the DF-26. Assessed to have a range of approximately 2,000 miles, the weapon could be used to strike Taiwan from deep inside Chinese territory, or as shown below, the U.S. military garrisons on Guam.
Further complicating matters is China’s possession of an advanced anti-ship missile, the DF-21D.
With an estimated range of 900 miles, the 21D could deter U.S. policymakers from sending aircraft carriers into the South and East China Seas during any conflict. China could also use the missile to deter U.S. support to Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion of the island.
After all, with U.S. carriers crewed with about 5,000 personnel, the risk of losing just one carrier at sea would be significant. The Chinese know this, of course, and thus see the missile as the centerpiece of their area denial strategy for the South China Sea. Here, China’s strategy recognizes that the U.S. is a democracy where leaders are accountable to the people. China thus hopes its weapons would weaken U.S. resolve before a conflict or quickly pressure a president to negotiate a peace on Chinese terms if the weapons were ever used.
So, what should be done?
While the U.S. Navy is already taking steps to counter China with an anti-ship cruise missile, the AGM-158C, the U.S. should reconsider its reliance on aircraft carriers as the core of the fleet. Instead, the Navy should build more submarines and drones, and the Air Force should push forwards with its long-range bomber program and long range strike capabilities.
Ultimately, preserving U.S. interests while deterring conflict requires denying China the ability to dictate the terms of battle.
