It’s beginning to look like Donald Trump got a perceptible bounce from the Republican National Convention. The latest RealClearPolitics average of recent polls has him leading Hillary Clinton by 44.1-43.9 percent, and leading her in five of the six polls conducted wholly or partially after the convention assembled July 18.

The model projects Trump as having a 46 percent chance of winning the election, up from 22 percent on July 12. They show Trump as the favorite to win the following Obama 2012 states — Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Nevada — which would leave Clinton with 273 electoral votes and Trump 265.