China is escalating its imperial conquest of the South China Sea.
On Tuesday, Chinese coast guard vessels fired water cannons against Philippine supply boats, blocking their attempt to resupply forces guarding the Second Thomas Shoal. Located well within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone, the Shoal is nonetheless claimed by China. The enduring ludicrousness of China’s South China Sea claims notwithstanding (the Thomas Shoal is 720 miles from the nearest Chinese territory), President Rodrigo Duterte only has himself to blame for China’s escalation. A fake strong man, Duterte has spent the past five years making himself Xi Jinping’s favorite puppet. Indeed, Duterte has acted far more akin to a Chinese communist viceroy than the leader of a once proud and vibrant democracy.
This enduring show of submission has encouraged China to take advantage of the situation. Recognizing the Philippines has historic status as a U.S. treaty ally, China has steadily undermined Philippine sovereignty with Duterte’s implicit support. The Thomas Shoal is just one area where Chinese coast guard forces have trampled Philippine maritime rights without riposte.
Duterte’s government is now attempting to repair some of the damage. It has belatedly recognized that in return for Duterte’s turning his navy into a literal beach patrol, Chinese investment pledges have gone undelivered and Beijing’s arrogance has grown exponentially. Still, the seeds of Duterte’s weakness have sprouted. Facing the outrageous action of the Chinese coast guard this week, the Philippine foreign minister offered only the most pathetic rebuke. He warned that “this failure to exercise self-restraint threatens the special relationship between the Philippines and China.”
Things are unlikely to change, at least before presidential elections next May. Even then, Bongbong Marcos looks the favorite to win (Marcos’s running mate is none other than Duterte’s daughter). Although more stable than Duterte, Marcos is seen as likely to continue a sympathetic stance toward China. Sensing as much, China appears to see little risk in escalating.
