Taiwan has proposed a massive increase in defense expenditures.
This should be welcomed by all those who are concerned with rising threats from China. Still, more must be done to dissuade China from future aggression.
On Sept. 16, 2021, Taiwan proposed an $8.69 billion increase in defense spending over the next five years. The latest hike is a 5.6% increase over the 2021 allocation and, Voice of America notes, is a response “to a surge in Chinese activity in or near the Taiwanese air defense identification zone” since 2020.
China has coveted Taiwan since 1949 when Chinese Communists under Mao Zedong successfully defeated the Chinese Nationalist forces of Chang Kai-Shek, who then retreated to the island nation. In contrast to communist China, Taiwan became a democracy several decades later. However, the Chinese Communist Party does not recognize Taiwan’s sovereignty and refuses to rule out using force to capture the country. Opinion surveys show that clear majorities of Taiwanese oppose unifying with China.
While Taiwan has marginally increased its defense budget over the past several years, it has faced criticism that the increases are insufficient.
In 2019, for example, Taiwan spent a mere 1.9% of its GDP on the military. The amount, a Bloomberg report observed at the time, was “not a lot for a government with a bulging foreign exchange reserve that’s under threat of invasion.” As one China analyst, Richard Bush, observed: “Taiwan is not Canada,” and “it’s not Norway. It faces a serious threat.”
Edward Luttwak, an adjunct fellow at the Marathon Initiative, tweeted in August: “Taiwan has a much larger population than Israel and a much larger economy. It is only smaller in its defense spending: 11 billion versus Israel’s 22 billion.”
Taiwan’s military is also not “optimally manned, trained, equipped and motivated to defend against an attack,” according to February 2021 testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. That claim, by Michael Hunzeker of George Mason University, is sadly borne out by facts.
Taiwan’s active-duty military has shrunk over the last several years. In 2021, the force had 165,000 soldiers, airmen, and sailors. In 2017, its ranks were 275,000 strong. Taiwan began phasing out conscription in 2013, after public pressure to transition to an all-volunteer army. Yet, despite a variety of incentives, including increased pay and housing and education benefits, the country is still contending with lackluster recruitment numbers. Morale and martial spirit are not what they need to be.
Taiwan’s reserve forces are also lacking. Despite having four times the population of Israel and Finland, the country can only field less than half as many reservists. And, as Luttwak noted, Taipei doesn’t “even have coastal (missile) artillery units manned by local reservists to capitalize on its island geography.”
Worse still, Taiwan has spent years preoccupied with equipment and material that is outclassed by China’s. It is vulnerable to rapid annihilation in conflict. Consider, for example, that Taiwan has been fixated on acquiring ocean-going submarines at a cost of $2 billion each. This would be better spent on coastal defenses to hold PLA invasion forces at risk.
Taiwan is playing catch-up. This defense increase looks certain to be approved and contains welcome changes. President Tsai Ing-wen clearly recognizes that change is urgent. But much more work remains.
Sean Durns is a Washington D.C.-based foreign affairs analyst. His views are his own.
