On Jan. 31, while appearing on Fox News “Special Report,” I confidently suggested that Nicolas Maduro, the illegitimate occupier of the Venezuelan presidency, would be deposed within a month.
Mea culpa: I was obviously wrong. But I now know what I got wrong.
First, I was overly confident in the success of U.S. efforts to persuade field-grade Venezuelan officers to turn against Maduro. While the vast proportion of those officers and those under the command would support interim president Juan Guaido, they are deterred against doing so. That deterrence takes the form of constant monitoring by Venezuelan civil and military intelligence units that are directed, supported, and trained by Cuban intelligence services. Absent a major “domino effect” event such as the defection of a brigade or division commander, most officers will choose to protect themselves and their families against the retaliation that would follow their disloyalty.
As an extension, I also overestimated the Trump administration’s willingness to foster defection. The administration has not robustly constrained Maduro’s intelligence services, nor the general officer ranks which remain loyal to him. On that latter point, I expected that the U.S. would have begun seizing the overseas assets of those generals, making them choose between loyalty to Maduro or opposing him with U.S. support and their millionaire pension pots.
My second failing was overestimating President Trump and President Ivan Duque of Colombia’s resolve to depose Maduro.
While the two leaders are working alongside new Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro to constrain Maduro’s finances, support refugees, and enable Guaido’s opposition, they have been reluctant to take other steps to compel Maduro’s fall. Examples that stand out here are seeking Guaido’s authorization for State Department and military personnel to escort aid convoys into Venezuela, cutting off Cuba’s access to Venezuelan oil, and obstructing Maduro’s access to international finance. Duque also remains reluctant to deploy the Colombian military in a show of force against Maduro.
So, that’s why I got it wrong that time.
Nevertheless, I remain confident that Maduro’s days are numbered in weeks and months rather than years. Albeit from lower ranks, military defections are increasing at slow but sustainable rates. More importantly, as Maduro’s capital reserves decline, and the Venezuelan people continue protesting, a domino effect event will eventually occur. At that point, Maduro will either be forced to flee, or he’ll end up dead.
[Also read: Ocasio-Cortez refuses to denounce Maduro]
