We are hurtling toward the end of the NFL regular season, so let’s get right to it.
Last week my picks went 2-1 overall and 0-2 against the spread (with one push). That brings me to 28-17 straight up this season and 22-21 against the spread (with two pushes).
Carolina Panthers (4-10) at Washington Football Team (6-8), 4:05 p.m. ET on CBS
Washington, which started the year 2-7, is now in position to potentially clinch the division with a win and some help. The NFC East has been horrific this year, but Washington rattled off wins against the Bengals, Cowboys, the previously unbeaten Steelers, and the 49ers before losing a close one to the Seahawks last week.
Ron Rivera’s Washington squad has a lot of momentum and confidence right now. One of the storylines getting a lot of attention this week is that Rivera is facing his former team, the Carolina Panthers. I don’t think that will impact this game much at all. One team has a lot to play for, and the other one doesn’t.
There’s a small chance Christian McCaffrey could return for the Panthers this week. If not, Mike Davis will continue to fill in in the backfield. He’s consistent but not explosive. He averages 4.1 yards per carry and only has two runs of 20 yards or more this season. He’s third on the team in catches and has four catches of at least 20 yards.
DJ Moore, Robby Anderson, and Curtis Samuel are solid Panthers receivers but will have a tough time against Washington’s fantastic pass defense. Only two teams allow fewer passing yards per game than Washington does, and it held Seattle’s Russell Wilson to a paltry 121 passing yards last week.
Washington’s offense is built around the run, checking it down to running backs and throwing deep to Terry McLaurin. Antonio Gibson has an impressive 11 rushing touchdowns this season and is effective when healthy. He’s averaging a solid 4.7 yards per carry this season. J.D. McKissic has been a capable backup and is second on the team in catches and third in receiving yards.
Whether Alex Smith or Dwayne Haskins is under center, McLaurin will be the deep threat, and the offense will run in a way that is designed to minimize risk and mistakes. Keep an eye on Logan Thomas. He has been targeted 31 times in his last three games. He caught all nine in the win against the Steelers, caught six of seven against the 49ers, and then caught 13 of the 15 passes thrown his way last week. He has become a huge part of the offense and a safety valve for whoever is taking snaps for Washington.
Statistically, neither of these teams is impressive except when it comes to Washington’s fifth-ranked scoring defense. Only three teams allow fewer yards per play than Washington, and only five have more sacks.
The line: Washington Football Team (-1.0)
The pick: Washington’s defense and its ability to get after the quarterback will be the difference-maker. I’m taking the Football Team to win and cover.
Los Angeles Rams (9-5) at Seattle Seahawks (10-4), 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX
The Seahawks clinched a spot in the playoffs with their win over Washington last week and have a chance to potentially lock up the division against the Rams. The Rams are coming off of an incredibly embarrassing loss at home to the previously winless New York Jets.
This week brings us an intriguing matchup of the NFL’s best pass defense against the NFL’s worst pass defense. No team allows fewer yards per game through the air than the Rams, and no teams allow more per game than the Seahawks. Interestingly, the Rams and Seahawks are second and third in football, respectively, when it comes to defending the run.
Cam Akers, the Rams’ leading rusher, is out this week with an injury, but, as I mentioned before, the Rams should be looking to throw it more often this week. A huge majority of Jared Goff’s passes are thrown at either Cooper Kupp or Robert Woods. Both have the ability to break big plays. Tyler Higbee can’t be counted out either. He has two touchdowns in his last three games.
DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett had quiet games against Washington’s fantastic pass defense. I think the Seahawks will employ a very similar strategy as the one they did last week. The Rams have a fantastic defensive front and the league’s best pass defense, so I expect Russell Wilson to get the ball out of his hands early with a bunch of quick passes instead of sitting in the pocket and waiting for something to open up. Wilson’s mobility could definitely be a big factor on Sunday since he could move the pocket or scramble for big gains and extend plays and drives.
Wilson has thrown for over 3,800 yards this season with 37 touchdowns and 13 picks while completing 70.2% of his passes. Goff has thrown for over 3,700 yards with 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions while completing 68% of his passes. The yardage and completion percentages are similar, but you can clearly see the level of production is way higher for Wilson. He’s also second on the team in rushing yards, is averaging over six yards per carry, and has six runs this season of 20 yards or more.
Two of the key reasons that the Rams lost to the Jets last week was because they fell behind 20-3 and because they went 2-for-11 on third down. Neither of those can happen again.
Seattle has the league’s fourth-ranked scoring offense, and Los Angeles has the league’s third-ranked scoring defense. It should be a very close and entertaining game.
The line: Seattle Seahawks (-1.0)
The pick: Not having Cam Akers available is important for the Rams, and I think the Seahawks will be able to make a few stops on defense to help them get a close win. I’m taking the Seahawks to win and cover.
Tennessee Titans (10-4) at Green Bay Packers (11-3), 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC
This is a huge matchup for both teams but especially the Green Bay Packers as they try to stay ahead of the Saints and Seahawks in the race for the NFC’s top seed. The Packers have been great at home and are 6-1 in Green Bay, while the Titans have been terrific on the road and are 5-1 away from Nashville. The forecast calls for it to be in the 20s with snow showers and some wind around 9 mph.
The Titans and Packers have some surprisingly similar offensive numbers.
The NFL’s second and third-best scoring offenses are No. 1 and No. 2 in red zone offense and are separated by a mere 0.1 points per game. Both teams average 6.2 yards per play on offense, and the Titans have scored just two more points over the course of the season than the Packers have. Both teams have just nine turnovers on offense this season, and both are separated by 0.4% when it comes to the percentage of drives ending in an offensive score.
Each team does it their own way. The Packers are eighth in passing yards per game and eighth in rushing yards per game. On the other hand, the Titans are 19th in passing yards per game but have the NFL’s second-best rushing attack.
Both teams are decent at stopping the run, but the Titans are fourth-worst at defending the pass. That’s a problem against almost any team, but especially when you’re facing Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has thrown 40 touchdowns with just four interceptions this season. He has racked up over 3,800 passing yards while completing nearly 70% of his throws.
The two main guys to watch on Green Bay’s offense are Aaron Jones and Davante Adams. Jones is averaging 5.4 yards per carry and is nearly at 1,000 yards rushing for the season. He’s also third on the team in receptions and is averaging over seven yards per catch out of backfield. He’s a versatile back and will get a lot of touches on Sunday night. Adams is one of the best receivers in the NFL. He’s tied for fourth in receptions, is seventh in receiving yards, and is second in touchdown catches. He has done all that despite missing two games. Adams is the kind of player that could single-handedly beat you. The Titans will have to figure out a way to try and contain him.
Speaking of guys that you have to contain, Tennessee’s Derrick Henry has a nearly 200-yard lead on Dalvin Cook in his quest to secure another rushing title. In addition to having 13 carries of 20 yards or more this season, he’s averaging nearly 120 rushing yards per game and is tied for the league lead with 15 rushing touchdowns.
Corey Davis, A.J. Brown, and Jonnu Smith on the Titans are all dangerous for opposing defenses. Davis leads the team in receptions, receiving yards, and catches of 20 yards or more, but Brown is second in all of those categories and has twice as many touchdown catches. Ryan Tannehill has looked like he has been worth every penny of that contract he signed. He has thrown for nearly 3,500 yards this season and has thrown 31 touchdowns and just five picks while completing 66.5% of his passes.
The biggest X-factor in my mind will be the weather. If it gets colder and windier, I expect to see both teams try to rely even more heavily on their running games.
The line: Green Bay Packers (-3.5)
The pick: It’s Lambeau Field in late December. While the Titans have a fantastic offense and the right formula to win this kind of game, I’ll take the Packers to win and cover.
Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.
