With the release of a new CNN poll of the Republican presidential contest in Iowa, we now have three surveys — CNN, Suffolk and PPP — taken since the August 6 GOP debate. And there are signs the debate has changed the order of things in the nation’s first voting state.
The first change is Scott Walker’s fall from first place in Iowa. The Wisconsin governor has led the RealClearPolitics average of Iowa polls since February. Now he’s in second place. At the beginning of this month, on the eve of the debate, Walker was in the lead at 20.5 in the RCP average; now he’s in second place at 14.8. In the new CNN polls, he’s in third place, with 9 percent.
The second change is Donald Trump’s rise to the top. On debate eve, Trump was in second place at 15.0. Now he is in the lead at 19.8.
The third change is Carly Fiorina’s rise. Before the debate, Fiorina was in 11th place in Iowa in the RCP average. Now, in CNN and Suffolk, she is in fifth place, and fourth in PPP.
The fourth change is the improved fortunes of Ben Carson. Before the debate, he was in fourth place in the RCP average at 8.0. Now he’s third, at 9.3. In the CNN poll, he is in second place.
A race totally remade? Not exactly. As the last week has shown, things can change quickly in the polls. And some important numbers to remember: CNN asked likely Republican caucus participants whether they have “definitely decided” who to support, or are “leaning toward” a candidate, or are “still trying to decide.” A full 66 percent of respondents said they are still trying to decide, while 19 percent said they are leaning toward a candidate, and 15 percent said they have definitely decided.
That’s a very fluid situation, which means that the new order is not likely to last.
