Time for the NFL season to get into double digits. We’re past the halfway point, and only eight weeks remain for teams to clinch that playoff spot, division title, or first-round bye.
My picks got beat up in Week 9 as I went 1-2 straight up and against the spread. But overall on the season, my picks are 18-9 straight up and 16-11 against the spread. So, here are three games you can’t miss this week, plus my picks that you can take to the bank.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) at Carolina Panthers (3-6), 1 p.m. ET on FOX
When Tampa Bay lost its season opener on the road to the New Orleans Saints, a very angry Tom Brady bounced back the following week with a win against the Panthers. The Saints demolished the Bucs by 35 points in prime time last week. Whom does Brady face this week? That’s right, the Panthers!
Despite getting crushed, the Bucs still have a top-10 scoring offense and a top-10 scoring defense, as well as the league’s top rushing defense.
Brady still has a bevy of options to work with offensively, including Mike Evans, Scotty Miller, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski, and Ronald Jones II. The Panthers are middle-of-the-road across the board when it comes to defense, but there’s one alarming stat that I saw: Carolina is giving up offensive scores on 51.2% of opponent’s drives. That’s the fourth-worst mark in the league. If the Bucs are scoring on over half of their possessions, that will be a huge issue since the Panthers will have to keep scoring points against a squad that scores touchdowns on 75% of its red-zone trips this year.
The Panthers can definitely still play a role in the NFC South division, but they’re running out of time. They’ve shown they can go toe-to-toe with the best teams in the league. They lost to the Las Vegas Raiders by four, the Saints by three, and the Kansas City Chiefs (the defending Super Bowl champion) by two. Christian McCaffrey’s much-awaited return from injury was bittersweet. He had a fantastic performance but left the game late after suffering a shoulder injury. He’s not expected to play this Sunday, but the Panthers have been much more accustomed to using Mike Davis now.
Davis hasn’t amazed with his running ability, but he has made himself much more valuable with his hands out of the backfield. While he’s averaging just 4.2 yards per carry, he’s second on the team in receptions. With McCaffrey out, he’s going to get called upon for a bigger workload — just like he did when McCaffrey went down at the beginning of the season.
Curtis Samuel now has four touchdowns in his last three games and has been utilized in some short-yardage situations. He had a breakout game last week against the Chiefs after he caught nine passes for 105 yards and a touchdown. Look for him, along with Robby Anderson and DJ Moore, to try and take advantage of a Bucs pass defense that gave up four touchdowns last weekend.
The line: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5)
The pick: I have a feeling the Bucs are looking for blood after getting embarrassed by the Saints. I’m taking the Bucs to win and cover the spread.
Buffalo Bills (7-2) at Arizona Cardinals (5-3), 4:05 p.m. ET on CBS
Buffalo’s 44-34 win over the Seattle Seahawks last week proved that the Bills are absolutely legitimate contenders this season. Josh Allen had one of the best games of his career, and he executed the game plan to perfection.
One of the more impressive stats for the Bills is that they’re converting on over 50% of their third-down plays. Allen is keeping the chains moving and sustaining drives. He has had a fantastic season so far. He’s completing nearly 69% of his passes and has thrown for 19 touchdowns and just five interceptions. He’s also third in the NFL in passing yards and fifth in quarterback rating.
At his current pace, Bills star receiver Stefon Diggs is just a couple of games shy of a 1,000-yard season. He is averaging just over 90 yards per game and leads or is tied for the team lead in catches, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. Look for Allen to get the ball to him early and often. He’s an explosive playmaker, so he can take a screen and beat you or just burn you deep.
On the other sideline, Arizona is coming off of a loss to the upstart Dolphins, but it was a game that the Cardinals likely should have won. They just had too many miscues.
Kyler Murray has had a great season and is leading the team in rushing in addition to putting up great passing numbers. He has 543 rushing yards, is averaging over 7 yards per carry, and is tied for third in the NFL with eight rushing touchdowns. He does need to improve his touchdown-to-interception ratio since he has 16 touchdown passes but has also thrown seven picks.
While Christian Kirk leads the team with six touchdown catches, DeAndre Hopkins, who didn’t even receive a target in the first half last week, owns a nearly 2-to-1 lead in receptions. Arizona needs to get Hopkins going early. Of the many avoidable and easily correctable mistakes they made last week against the Miami Dolphins, this is one of the easiest to correct.
They’re underrated, but the Cardinals, like the Bucs, also have a top-10 scoring offense and top-10 scoring defense. I expect to see a closely contested game. I’ll be interested to see how the Bills start. They got off to a great start in their win against the Seahawks. Did they let a little wind out of their sails after that big win, or will they keep the momentum rolling?
The line: Arizona Cardinals (-2.0)
The pick: The Bills were able to beat Russell Wilson last week, so I think their game plan will be similar this week against a very dangerous quarterback in Kyler Murray. They gave up a lot of points but still came away with the win. I think we’ll see a similar script but with a little less scoring. I’m taking the points and the Bills to win as road underdogs.
Seattle Seahawks (6-2) at Los Angeles Rams (5-3), 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX
The Seahawks were trailing from the very beginning with the Bills last week, and their historically bad pass defense was shredded once again. Seattle has now given up more passing yards in its first eight games than any team in NFL history.
The stat that I keep coming back to is that Wilson is 32-8 following an in-season loss. No quarterback since the NFL merger has a better record after a regular-season loss.
With that being said, we get a fun clash this week between teams with contrasting identities. The Seahawks have the NFL’s top scoring offense and are averaging 34.3 points per game. The Rams have the NFL’s second-best scoring defense and are giving up just 19 points per game.
The Rams have dropped two of their past three since starting 4-1 but are coming off of their bye week. Jared Goff has regressed a bit since leading the Rams to the Super Bowl, but he gets the best possible matchup against the Seahawks secondary. That means that Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Tyler Higbee could be primed for big games.
Seattle has the league’s best passing offense, but no team gives up more passing yards per game than Seattle does. The Rams have the league’s second-best pass defense and an absolute behemoth up front in Aaron Donald. He’s a large reason why the Rams are fifth in the league in sacks.
Chris Carson might return for the Seahawks this week and will have a lot of pressure on him to lighten some of the pressure that will be coming for Wilson.
For the Rams, Darrell Henderson Jr. and Malcolm Brown have made for an effective duo. Los Angeles quietly has the seventh-best running game in the NFL and is averaging nearly 140 yards per game on the ground. They’ll have to take better care of the ball because they do have 12 fumbles, but the Rams could try to grind it out against the Seahawks and run the ball a lot in order to try to keep Wilson off the field.
I think this game will be a back-and-forth affair, and I’ll be interested to see how Wilson, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett try to attack Los Angeles’s secondary. There are so many different elements to look at it in this contest between these two squads battling it out in the NFC West. I expect it to be a great one.
The line: Los Angeles Rams (-1.5)
The pick: His record speaks for itself. Wilson wins games after in-season losses. I expect him to do that again this week. I’m taking the points and the Seahawks to win as road underdogs.
Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.
