President Trump must clarify his position on the South China Sea. Tensions in these waters are rising quickly, with a U.S.-China conflict increasingly likely.
The urgency is real. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo this week dramatically shifted U.S. policy on the South China Sea to describe China’s territorial claims as prima facie unlawful. Seemingly deliberately, Pompeo’s language also provided a legal foundation for conflict, should it occur. This is not to say Pompeo is wrong. China’s claim that the South China Sea is its own private swimming pool is both absurd and strikingly reminiscent of 1930s Japanese imperialism.
Yet, Trump hasn’t offered public clarity as to his attitudes on this specific issue. That’s a problem for two reasons. First, because it risks Chinese miscalculation in the perception of Trump’s disinterest or distraction. Second, because the American people deserve to know where Trump actually stands on an issue that might soon be defined by major conflict.
As with many foreign policy issues, Trump’s position is less than crystal clear. While Trump’s policy is increasingly hawkish, the president has hinted that his preference in how to handle the issue is via deal-making between China and other South China Sea nations. During a November 2017 trip to the Asia-Pacific region, Trump told the Vietnamese president, “If I can help mediate or arbitrate, please let me know. … I’m a very good mediator and arbitrator.” Trump has made similar, if misguided, offers to India in relation to its border disputes with China and Pakistan.
We must assume on the basis of the policy his administration is now carrying forward that Trump has directed a posture of escalation in the South China Sea. But what are Trump’s red lines? Is Trump ordering much more regular carrier strike group patrols here because he wants to confront Beijing with more direct shows of force? Or are these carrier deployments a result of Trump giving wide latitude to Defense Secretary Mark Esper and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo?
It’s a legitimate question in light of Trump’s stance on another foreign policy concern, Iran. Facing Tehran, Trump has oscillated between direct action, notably with his order to kill Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Gen. Qassem Soleimani, and flirtations with detente, as with his repeated musing of a “no conditions” meeting with President Hassan Rouhani. There is little doubt, however, that Trump is less hawkish on Iran than is Pompeo. Where Pompeo has demanded Iran’s relinquishing of terrorist activity in return for negotiations, Trump has offered negotiations specific to nuclear and ballistic missile concerns.
This context matters with China, where Pompeo is the administration’s leading voice for confronting Beijing.
Now, considering China’s imperial agenda to replace the U.S.-led democratic international order with a feudal-mercantile kingdom out of Beijing, I believe Pompeo’s approach is broadly correct and worthy of praise. However, Chinese President Xi Jinping will see these escalating U.S. aircraft carrier deployments as a direct challenge to his personal authority in a condition of rising internal fears over the Communist Party’s stability. In turn, sending destroyers, bombers, and the occasional carrier strike group through the South China Sea might be more prudent, at least at present, than keeping two carriers on near-constant patrol. The risks of miscalculation and emotional overreaction are significant. In addition, the carriers are more vulnerable to the People’s Liberation Army than the Pentagon admits (submarines are more useful).
As I say, is Trump aware of how high tensions are running in the South China Sea? And how his policy affects those tensions? Or is he simply leaving this issue to others? We need to know. Trump should address the issue directly and publicly.
