SALISBURY, N.C. — As recently as three weeks ago, Donald Trump was leading in the RealClearPolitics average of North Carolina polls. But in the time since, the Clinton campaign has poured it on in this state that might end up as the most critical battleground in the country. Barack Obama, Michelle Obama, Bill Clinton, and a variety of other surrogates have joined Clinton herself at event after event in North Carolina.
There seems little doubt Clinton has caught up, but precisely where the race stands now is a little cloudy. A new poll from the New York Times has Clinton ahead by 7 points, 46 percent to 39 percent, in North Carolina, while an equally new poll by Monmouth shows Clinton up by a single point, 47 percent to 46 percent. The RCP average of recent polls in the state has Clinton ahead by 2 points.
One of Mike Pence’s jobs, when he came to this city of 34,000, was to buck up Trump supporters, to tell them not to believe the media accounts suggesting Clinton is pulling away from Trump, both nationally and in North Carolina.
“It’s frankly obvious what the media’s trying to do, just over the last few days,” Pence told a crowd of a few hundred at Catawba College. “They’re trying to refer to some polling data to try to roll this campaign up. Well, the polls I’m looking at — Rasmussen’s got us up 2 across the country. Investor’s Business Daily has us up 1 across the country, and here in North Carolina, it’s a 1-point race. This race is on, North Carolina. Don’t let them spin you any other way. Don’t be fooled. This race is on.”
Pence didn’t have to convince the audience. Everyone I talked to in the crowd expressed skepticism about the polls, both state and national. Some attributed bad motives to media companies running and reporting the polls, while others suggested this is a difficult race to poll because social pressures inhibit people from revealing that they support Trump. But nobody believed the public is getting an accurate picture.
“I believe that Trump’s ahead right now,” said Brian, of Concord, N.C. “I think there are just a lot of people who won’t come out and admit they’re going to vote for him.”
“I think that the media-sponsored polls are trying to sell a narrative,” said Steve, from Mooresville. “That’s what I think — including Fox News, ABC, NBC, the Washington Post. I think it’s much closer than they’re saying, and I think the most likely outcome is Trump is going to win, and it’s even possible he could win significantly.”
“I don’t believe them,” Carol, of Mooresville, said of the polls. “I think there’s a big movement, because every time I’ve attended a rally there’s so much enthusiasm for Donald Trump. I’ve been to three now. I just think that a lot more people are going to vote for him than are really telling.”
“I think the polls are about as right as Brexit was,” said David, from Davidson.
“I think there’s a lot of people that aren’t showing their hand yet,” said Pat, from Statesville. “I’m a pilot. I’ve been all over the country in the last couple of months. I haven’t seen any Hillary signs. Every hotel I’ve been at, every airport has had Fox News on. Everyone I’ve talked to in restaurants and bars privately says — but they won’t say it out loud — ” Pointing toward his wife, Sue, Pat said, “I’ve been telling her for months it’s going to be a landslide.”
“I hope so,” said Sue.
“I think the polls are not a true picture right now,” said Gayle, from Salisbury. “I think Trump’s ahead, but I think a lot of the media is trying to make it sound like he’s behind because people want to vote for the winner, the person that’s ahead.”
“I look at the polls each day,” said Tim, of Mint Hill. “I look at RealClearPolitics, the daily polls, Investor’s Business Daily, Rasmussen, some of the others. I see ABC had the Clinton campaign up 12 points [nationally], so I know that can’t be. And I do believe there are people who either don’t want to admit, or lie to pollsters, or don’t answer the phone. I’m going to guess the race is about tied.”
These weren’t just a few of the people I approached. Every single person I talked to in Salisbury was skeptical about the polls. And most of them weren’t the fabled non-college-degree voters whose support for Trump has been the most-discussed phenomenon of the campaign. They were educated, involved, and some followed the numbers quite carefully.
What is going on? Part of it might be the 2016 version of the poll “unskewing” that obsessed some Republicans in the 2012 race. That came to an unhappy end with Mitt Romney’s defeat. But there might be a special twist this year.
The people at the Pence rally were conservatives. They liked Pence’s message, which tied Trump to Ronald Reagan on a number of occasions. And part of being a conservative Republican, as it has been for many, many years, is believing that major news organizations are biased in favor of Democrats.
So there is always that skepticism. But now, some news organizations have abandoned some of their traditional practices to take an unprecedented, openly oppositional stance toward Trump. They feel it is their duty to tell readers and viewers, in the bluntest terms possible, that Trump is lying about this or lying about that.
So imagine these voters who already believed those news organizations were biased. Now, those outlets are even more overtly opposed to Trump than they were to previous Republican nominees. So why would any of these voters believe a poll that has the name ABC or the Washington Post or the New York Times or others on it?
They don’t. The media brand names have tainted the media polling.
That’s what Pence was speaking to in Salisbury and at other stops around the country. He was telling Republican voters not to believe what they already didn’t believe.
“The truth of the matter is, [Clinton] may have the media, the money, and the special interests on her side, but Donald Trump and I have the American people on our side, and the American people are saying enough is enough,” Pence said. “I hope you’re not buying all this media spin that’s out there. I mean, this race is on.”
