Pundits have long believed that public disdain for the Trump presidency would usher in an equally radical leftist to the Oval Office. Thomas Edsall of the New York Times has suggested that since “Trump threw out conventional wisdom,” Democrats may be in the position to “gamble on a similar strategy.” But somehow, Trump may prove them wrong yet again. In fact, the ascent of Joe Biden shows that Trump may just be helping moderate the Democratic primary.
Commentators on both sides of the aisle have repeatedly labeled Trump the ultimate harbinger of political extremism. Like Edsall, Sen. Ben Sasse, R-Neb., in his recent book Them, calls out Trump for stoking extremism and “political tribalism.” In other words, Trump’s unapologetic radicalism will send the pendulum in the opposite direction, setting the stage for a radical socialist to make political headway in unprecedented fashion.
On the surface, there is evidence to suggest that this phenomenon is true. Recent European Union parliamentary elections have shown that the center is folding. In France, President Emmanuel Macron’s party lost to the far more conservative Marine Le Pen; in Belgium, the extremist anti-immigrant and Green parties doubled their votes, ranking among the top political parties. In the United States, we’ve seen Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a former New York City bartender and self-proclaimed socialist, displace the third highest ranking Democrat in the House in one of the biggest upsets of 2016.
But if Trump has delivered the death knell of moderate politics, how do we account for the success of Joe Biden, a moderate Democrat? Unlike many in the field, Biden has disavowed progressive proposals like “Medicare for all” and the “Green New Deal,” and has branded himself as a continuation of the Obama years, rather than a “lurch to the left” as have his cohorts. He’s currently polling around 35% in national polls, twice the level of support earned by socialist Sen Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., the next runner-up, out of a field of 24 candidates. All this, despite sexual harassment accusations, a penchant for hair-sniffing, and more baggage than he can carry on the Amtrak. Something is working for him.
The magic word is electability. Many believe “Uncle Joe” from Scranton has sufficient rapport with middle America to steal away enough of Trump’s base. A recent poll shows that 56% of Democratic voters believe that Biden has what it takes beat Trump, as compared with 12% who believe that of Bernie Sanders, the next runner-up. Even young, radical Democrats, desperate to be rid of Trump, are willing to back old, white, un-P.C. Joe if they believe he has the best chance to win (even though they might prefer gay, women, or minority candidates).
Other candidates have likewise tried to tout their ability to beat Trump, with Pete Buttigieg presenting his young, intellectual persona as a foil to Trump, while Elizabeth Warren has opted to inundate voters with unrealistic, socialist policy proposals. But none have been as successful as the proudly un-woke Biden.
Were Hillary Clinton to have won, or even a more conventional Republican, it would be difficult to imagine that someone so removed from today’s progressive culture as Biden would be leading the race. Polling suggests that far more Democrats today are open to socialism, and are concerned with identity politics, than during the Obama years. Without Trump’s looming shadow, the Democratic primary would likely center around these issues, and Biden would find himself on opposite ends from most Democratic voters on healthcare, criminal justice reform, reparations, the environment, and much more. However, in the lead-up to 2020, it seems most Democrats outside the Twitter sphere are willing to compromise on Biden if it means kicking Trump out of office.
While Joe Biden would surely perform better in places like Pennsylvania, he risks alienating the far leftists who failed to turn out for Clinton after Sanders dropped out back in 2016. It seems many Democratic primary voters are gambling that Trump is so universally despised that even the most socialist among them will be willing to turn out for the “lesser of evils.”
Only time can tell whether that cynical ploy works in their favor. But it seems that even this early on, one thing is for certain: This election is bound to be a referendum on Trump. And as long as our loud and proud tweeter in chief commands the conversation, Democrats seem willing to run anyone they believe has the best chance of taking back the White House.
Adam Barsouk is a medical student, cancer researcher, and Young Voices contributor.
