On Tuesday, a Venezuelan official flew a helicopter to his nation’s Supreme Court. On arrival, he dropped grenades onto the building. He then released a video identifying himself as a police officer named Oscar Perez. Standing in front of masked men, Perez called on the Venezuelan people to resist the country’s president, Nicolas Maduro.
While no one was injured or killed, this is a significant incident. It speaks to the growing disenchantment of security forces within President Maduro’s regime.
It’s an overdue development.
For years now, the security forces have provided critical support to Maduro’s trampling of democracy. In return, Maduro has appointed thousands of generals and graced them with lucrative economic benefits. As the people have starved, they have become enriched. And cultivating their culture of corruption, Maduro has generated a presidential insurance policy. He has also endeavored to protect lower military ranks from the worst difficulties of Venezuela’s economic crisis.
Still, this brazen assault on one of Maduro’s favored institutions (he has packed the Supreme Court with allies), may represent a turning point in the conflict. By so openly and publicly striking at the regime’s heart, Perez has highlighted Maduro’s vulnerability. But the attack is also well timed.
After all, the nation’s massive street protests are increasingly violent. And with numerous young people now dying, the protests are also increasingly emotive. This chaos is sapping the morale of lower ranking security forces. And they know there’s no light on the horizon.
On the contrary, Maduro is pushing for changes that would allow him to rule as an absolute dictator. Such unrepentant authoritarianism is only calcifying the popular resistance to his regime. But while the president hides in luxury, the security forces face a future of constant street battles.
Ultimately, however, Maduro’s greatest weakness is his ideology. A kleptocratic socialist who fundamentally does not understand economics, Maduro cannot address his people’s needs. His platform is one of starving children and hyper-inflation. And as time goes on, more junior to mid ranked Venezuelan military officials will realize that the game is up. That unless they reject Maduro, they will share in his eventual fate.
In revolutions, it is normally the allegiance of the security forces that makes the difference. Maduro and the senior officers of Venezuela’s military should fear history.
In 1905, the Russian army stood with Tsar Nicholas II.
In 1917, the army mutinied when ordered to shoot female protesters. And many of its officers were shot.
