Recently, the Deseret News of Salt Lake City published a general election poll of Utah, the most Republican state in America in recent elections. It showed Donald Trump losing there to Hillary Clinton, even as the other two remaining Republican candidates — Ted Cruz and John Kasich — beat her effortlessly.
On Tuesday, the Mason-Dixon poll released a survey of the same November matchups in the heavily Republican state of Mississippi. Again, Kasich and Cruz beat Clinton by double digits. Trump, however, squeaked past her by just three points, less than the margin of error.
These two polls point to a very unpleasant fact about the nominal Republican front-runner. If Trump’s name ends up at the top of the ballot this fall, the GOP and the conservative movement face total annihilation. Not only will the U.S. Senate go to the Democrats, but probably the House as well — to say nothing of the next generation of voters. With Trump leading the ticket, states like Utah, Mississippi, Kansas, Texas and Georgia will all be in play for Hillary Clinton.
To be sure, Trump has done well enough so far that he will win about 12 million votes in the primaries. But that translates to less than 10 percent of the broader general electorate, and less than one-fifth of the number of votes he would need to lose respectably in November. This seems unlikely to happen, though, given that polls show that he is now despised by somewhere between 65 and 70 percent of all likely American voters and even 51 percent of white male voters.
In short, Republicans could not do much worse than Trump if they nominated a criminal on death row, or even if they took a barrel of toxic waste and turned it into their nominee.
Tuesday night’s election — in which Trump was crushed in Wisconsin by a high double-digit margin — offered Republicans a temporary reprieve. But GOP voters must choose a new path forward that does not lead straight off a cliff.
Why did Trump lose so badly on Tuesday night? Part of the reason is that the failing, dystopian America he describes to his audiences just doesn’t exist in Wisconsin. For one thing, the Badger State is well-governed, especially after the passage of Gov. Scott Walker’s Act 10 freed up billions for local governments to spend on services instead of bloated union contracts. Trump never understood this or bothered to try, which is why he attacked Walker for not raising taxes.
Wisconsin’s economy also weathered the recent recession relatively well compared to, say, Michigan. Wages and jobs are both up there since 2011, as are manufacturing output and exports to foreign countries (Wisconsin has a trade surplus with Mexico).
Unfortunately, the delegate math dictates that tonight’s victory is not enough on its own to stop Trump from winning the nomination outright before convention. Nor will it be enough even if Cruz wins (as is expected) the upcoming winner-take-all races in South Dakota, Nebraska, and Montana.
In addition to these contests, Cruz needs to perform well in an Eastern state somewhere, Indiana (another well-governed state whose manufacturing economy is also very strong) or Maryland, perhaps. If Cruz can manage that, and compete with Trump in California, it would likely prevent Trump from winning a delegate majority before the GOP convention.
Stopping Trump would require Republicans in each state to unite judiciously around the candidate with the best chance of beating him.
It also requires John Kasich — a candidate with no mathematical path to the nomination — to stop being part of the problem. If Kasich will not get out of the race, he could at least focus his time and resources on states that award delegates proportionally, states and congressional districts where he could actually beat Trump, and states where his contribution to driving up vote totals could help keep Trump under 50 percent. The one thing Kasich cannot afford to be is a spoiler. Because like the Republican Party, he too will become irrelevant to national politics if Trump clinches the nomination before this summer’s convention.
