Israel will attempt to ignore Russia’s delivery of an S-300 air defense system to Syria. But if that system competently targets Israeli jets, the Israelis will destroy it.
This bears note alongside Russia’s announcement on Monday that it will provide Bashar Assad’s regime with an S-300. That delivery follows last week’s friendly-fire downing of a Russian intelligence aircraft and the loss of 15 Russian personnel. It happened at the hands of a Syrian air defense crew that was using an inferior air defense system. The Syrians fired on the Russian aircraft in the mistaken belief that it was Israeli.
Although the S-300 delivery might look like a major escalation of conflict, it won’t change Israel’s calculus. The Israelis will continue to target military platforms in Syria that they have been targeting for years now. Namely, Iranian revolutionary guard, Lebanese Hezbollah, and Assad forces engaged in missile transfers and other activities that are viewed by Israel as posing a critical threat.
Putin recognizes as much.
The Russian leader knows that the Israelis will not cease their activities simply because they face a greater threat. And that’s why he has given Assad an S-300 system rather than an more advanced S-400 system. Putin knows that where the S-400 would pose a significant threat to Israeli air crews, Israel can mitigate the S-300’s impact with a range of electronic warfare activities. In addition, Putin is almost certain to impose restrictions on the Syrians in terms of where they position the S-300 and how they employ it.
Putin does not want an Israeli jet to be shot down by the S-300 – or even worse, an Israeli strike that destroys the S-300. That’s not because of some moral quandary on Putin’s part – he simply wants to prevent another friendly fire incident, and for the S-300 delivery to send a broader message to other actors around the world that he is not a man to be pushed around. With pressure on Moscow rising in relation to its chemical weapons attacks in Britain, Putin wants to discourage the view that he is in a position of weakness. The S-300 delivery thus feeds Putin’s sustaining deterrent narrative that Russian is willing to out-escalate any adversary.
Ultimately, however, this delivery won’t change much. Israel will remain committed to its interests in Syria, Russia to its own, and Assad and Iran will remain restrained.
