Generally I’ve been pretty good at picking results this season, but every one has a bad week, even if you’re the Alabama of football predictors. Last week my picks went 1-2 straight up and 1-2 against the spread. But I like to think I’d still make the playoff of college football predictors, if there was one.
Record after week 6: straight up – (14-4), against the spread – (12-6).
No. 6 Oklahoma (5-0) vs. No. 11 Texas (4-1) (Noon ET on FOX)
The latest chapter in the Red River Rivalry, one of the most storied rivalries in all of college football, will be written Saturday at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas.
Oklahoma quarterback Jalen Hurts has planted firmly in the Heisman conversation and his play has been nothing short of sensational. He has thrown for 1,523 yards with 14 touchdowns and just two picks while completing 75.2% of his passes. He’s also leading the team in rushing with 499 yards and seven touchdowns. He’s averaging 8.8 yards per carry and is on pace to run for over 1,000 yards this season.
Sam Ehlinger has been nearly as impressive for the Longhorns. He has thrown for 1,448 yards with 17 touchdowns and two picks while completing 69.4% of his passes. While he hasn’t piled up gaudy rushing numbers like Hurts has and doesn’t have his top-end speed, Ehlinger still has over 200 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns to his name this season. He’s also averaging over 4.5 yards per carry. The guy can definitely tuck it and run.
This is a big game for both teams, but it’s a huge game for Texas. If the Longhorns lose, their chance of making the College Football Playoff is basically gone. Remember, no two-loss team has ever made the playoffs. Granted, Texas’ two losses would be to top-10 teams, but they’ll still need help to get in.
My X-factor in this game is the quarterback play. Which quarterback will take better care of the ball? Which one will help their team convert more third downs to extend drives? Those will likely determine the outcome of the game.
Oklahoma has the nation’s second-ranked scoring offense, averaging over 53 points per game, and Texas is 11th. These defenses will be under siege the entire game, so Oklahoma and Texas’ offenses can help their defensive units catch their breath by going on clock-draining drives. The Sooners have a huge edge in that department with the nation’s third-ranked rushing attack, averaging over 280 rushing yards per game.
The spread: Oklahoma (-10.5)
My pick: Texas showed a lot of resilience in its loss to LSU and managed to win this rivalry game last year. That being said, the Sooners are the more explosive team. I’m picking them to win, but I think there is a lot of backdoor cover potential here so I’d grab the points.
No. 1 Alabama (5-0) at No. 24 Texas A&M (3-2) (3:30 p.m. ET on CBS)
Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, last year’s runner-up for the Heisman Trophy, is off to another blazing start to the season. He is completing 76.4% of his passes and has thrown for 1,718 yards this year with 23 touchdowns and no interceptions. That’s a pretty solid touchdown-to-interception ratio. With Tua at the helm of the nation’s third-best scoring offense and third-best passing offense, that has opened up some running lanes for Najee Harris. He has 337 rushing yards this season and is averaging over six yards per carry.
Texas A&M’s Kellen Mond has shown the ability to step up in big games before and he’ll be called upon to do that again. I doubt the Aggies can win unless Mond leads them with a phenomenal performance. Alabama is so sound against the run that Texas A&M will have to try and do a lot of its damage through the air. While Mond is completing fewer than 65% of his passes, he has thrown for over 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns along with four interceptions. He’ll need to make sure he makes good decisions with the ball because the Aggies cannot afford to give ‘Bama extra possessions and short fields.
In a narrow win against lowly Arkansas, the Aggies managed just a meager 89 rushing yards on 33 carries for an average of 2.7 yards per carry. If Texas A&M couldn’t enforce its will against the Razorbacks, do you really think it’ll be able to do so against Alabama?
My X-factor in this game is Tua against Texas A&M’s secondary. If the Aggies can keep everything in front of them and limit the big plays, they’ll have a much better shot at winning this game. If Tua has a lot of success in the passing game, they might be forced to take guys out of the box. That could lead to Alabama having even more success with the run game.
The spread: Alabama (-18.0)
My pick: This game looks like a mismatch on paper and it is. That being said, 18 is a lot of points here. This is a very similar scenario to the Oklahoma-Texas game. I expect one team to win comfortably but the potential for a backdoor cover is high. I’m going with my gut and taking Alabama to win and cover the spread.
No. 7 Florida (6-0) at No. 5 LSU (5-0) (8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN)
I can’t wait for this SEC showdown in Death Valley. I imagine LSU fans watching the Tigers’ offense this season feel a lot like the emperor did in Star Wars when he forced Luke to watch the incredible and destructive power of his fully-armed and operational battle station.
LSU’s offensive coordinator Joe Brady spent two years as an offensive assistant with the New Orleans Saints before coming to Baton Rouge. He and quarterback Joe Burrow have modernized this LSU offense in less than a year. Burrow is putting up historic numbers and only two schools are averaging more points per drive this season than the Tigers.
Just look at some of Burrow’s numbers: 1,864 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, and three interceptions while completing passes at a 78.4% clip.
He’s not dumping the ball off either. He’s stretching the field and going deep. His average yards per pass attempt is 11.5.
LSU has the nation’s top scoring offense but it won’t be a walk in the park because Florida’s defense is one of the best in the country. The Gators have the fifth-best scoring defense in the nation and, as ESPN’s Andrea Adelson wrote earlier this week, they lead the nation in takeaways (19) and red zone defense, are tied for third in sacks (26), tied for fourth in tackles for loss (50) and ranked in the top 10 in total defense and pass efficiency defense.
Florida QB Kyle Trask was listed as probable for the game so he’ll be back under center. He has thrown for nearly 900 yards and has seven touchdowns and two picks so far this season. Since LSU’s offense is so explosive and effective, it’s even more imperative that Trask make good decisions with the ball.
While it’s tempting to pick Burrow against the Florida secondary as my X-factor, I’m going to go with LSU’s offensive line against Florida’s front seven. Florida might be the best pass-rush unit this team sees that isn’t named Alabama. As I explained before, they’re elite defensively. This Tigers offense won’t roar (pun intended) unless Burrow has time to throw. Todd Grantham, Florida’s defensive coordinator, will try to disguise his coverage schemes and send blitzes early and often.
The spread: LSU (-13.0)
The pick: LSU is for real. The Tigers proved it against Texas, and I think they’ll win another statement game that sets up a titanic battle when they face off against Alabama. I’m taking LSU to win and cover.
Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.
