When is a single study showing a tiny effect that is not likely to be replicated worthy of a New York Times breaking news alert? When that study shows giving free cash to poor mothers improves child development.
Last week, the New York Times sent an alert to subscribers linking to an article about a new paper showing slightly higher brain activity in the babies of single mothers given $333 per month than in those whose mothers were given only $20 a month.
The article admits that “the differences were modest — researchers likened them in statistical magnitude to moving to the 7th position in a line of 100 from the 81st,” but that didn’t stop some of the researchers associated with the study from making some pretty bold claims.
“This is a big scientific finding,” University of Pennsylvania neuroscientist Martha J. Farah told the New York Times. “It’s proof that just giving the families more money, even a modest amount of more money, leads to better brain development.”
“Proof” is a very strong word here. Not only was the magnitude of the brain activity mentioned above very small, but the likelihood that the results can be replicated by another study is even smaller — so small that, in statistical terms, the results would be classified as “not statistically significant.”
Even then, the paper in question did not establish any link between the detected increase in brain activity and any actual measurable improvement in child development. That will have to come later as the babies in the study grow older.
What is not mentioned anywhere in the study, and only once in the New York Times article, is marriage. And even then, the New York Times only mentions it in passing as something conservative critics of free cash for single mothers are worried about.
But past research has clearly shown, with statistical significance, that paternal involvement increases a child’s intelligence, improves educational outcomes, and decreases behavioral problems. Marriage is also a far more stable environment for childhood development than cohabitation, leading to better results for childhood development.
None of these studies got news alerts in the New York Times. Most were entirely ignored by the press. This is why, unfortunately, a majority of people now believe unmarried couples raise children just as well as married couples.
