With upsets and close calls, the NFL’s expanded Wild Card weekend lived up to its name. But you can expect even more competitive and close games to come in the divisional round this weekend. Here are two keys to the game for each team, plus my picks to win.
My picks last week were a mixed bag, going 4-2 straight up but 1-4 against the betting spread (with one push). Still, my season-long record is now 36-21 straight up and 28-26 against the spread (with three annoying pushes).
Los Angeles Rams (10-6) at Green Bay Packers (13-3), Saturday at 4:35 p.m. ET on FOX
- Key No. 1 for Los Angeles: Health
No surprise here as Jared Goff is beat up, John Wolford was ruled out, and Aaron Donald is dealing with a rib injury. Cooper Kupp is on the mend but expected to play. The weather is going to be very cold, and there is a very large chance of snow as well. How will that affect Goff’s hand? If he can’t play or gets hurt, how much do they open up the offense in a road playoff game in the snow? The Rams will have to rely on their elite top-ranked scoring defense more than ever.
- Key No. 2 for Los Angeles: Cam Akers
The Rams’ running back had a huge game against the Seahawks. He had 28 carries for 131 yards and a touchdown, as well as a pair of catches for 45 yards. Akers may be called upon for another 25-plus carries. With the potential snowy conditions, establishing the run will be crucial. He showed that he could carry the load in Seattle. Can he do it again in Green Bay?
- Key No. 1 for Green Bay: COVID-19
Green Bay had a recently signed offensive lineman test positive. The Packers haven’t had any other positives come out yet, but we don’t know what the lingering effects could be or if they might have someone knocked out of the game due to contact-tracing.
In a matchup between the league’s top scoring offense and top scoring defense, any absences could be critical.
- Key No. 2 for Green Bay: Aaron Jones
Aaron Jones and Davante Adams are the two biggest threats in the Green Bay offense, but I’m going to give the key to Jones because of the potential inclement weather and because of what he might be able to do in terms of opening up the field offensively for quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the front-runner for MVP.
Jones was fourth in the NFL in rushing yards in the regular season, even though he only played in 14 of the 16 games. He was fifth in yards per carry and tied for 11th in rushing touchdowns with nine. His great hands make him a threat out of the backfield as well. He’s third on the team in receptions and is averaging 7.6 yards per catch.
With all-world corner and potential NFL Defensive Player of the Year Jalen Ramsey shadowing Davante Adams, Jones has a lot of potential to change the game. With the weather and flow of the game, I think he will definitely get at least 20 touches.
The line: Green Bay Packers (-6.5)
The pick: The Rams’ elite defense will keep them in it, but I think the Packers will prevail. I’m taking the Packers to win but not to cover.
Baltimore Ravens (11-5) at Buffalo Bills (13-3), Saturday at 8:15 p.m. ET on NBC
- Key No. 1 for Baltimore: Lamar Jackson
Last week’s win helped Jackson avoid some of the critics as he picked up his first playoff win. He struggled a little throwing the ball but did run for 136 yards and a touchdown. He needs to take care of the football and continue to gash opponents for big gains as he did against the Tennessee Titans.
The key is getting off to a good start. The temperature is supposed to be very cold, and there is a very good chance of snow. Jackson has never played in a snow game before but will now likely have to do so on the road in the playoffs. In my mind, he’s the biggest X-factor on the field, and that includes both teams.
- Key No. 2 for Baltimore: Run, run, and run some more
I’m not going to surprise anyone by saying that the league’s top rushing offense should run the ball a lot. The Ravens averaged nearly 192 rushing yards per game in the regular season. Running for over 3,000 yards on the season puts them as one of the greatest rushing teams in NFL history.
The Bills gave up an alarming 163 yards last week to the Indianapolis Colts. Indy averaged 5.4 yards per carry and had a chance to tie or win the game late.
Lamar Jackson, J.K. Dobbins, and Gus Edwards will need good performances in order to lift the Ravens to victory. Running the ball will not only wear out the Bills defense but also keep Josh Allen and the explosive Bills offense off the field.
- Key No. 1 for Buffalo: Josh Allen
I had Allen as one of my keys last week, and I’m sticking with him this week. He’s the first quarterback to surpass 4,500 yards passing, 35 touchdown passes, and five rushing touchdowns in a single season. He has been sensational this season.
Allen is going up against one of, if not the best, defenses he has faced all season. The Ravens are very balanced. They’re second overall in scoring defense, second in third-down defense, sixth in defending the pass, and eighth in defending the run.
The Bills have the league’s second-best scoring offense, the best third-down offense, a top-three passing attack, and are scoring on more than 49% of their possessions. It’s imperative for Allen to have a good performance on Sunday in order for the Bills to advance.
- Key No. 2 for Buffalo: Picking up the blitz
No team blitzes more than the Baltimore Ravens. Luckily for the Bills, ESPN’s Jamison Hensley notes that Allen leads the league with 19 touchdown passes against pressure this season.
The Ravens love to send different looks. Cole Beasley will be an important part of the game plan this week not in pass protection but as a safety valve on slant routes. Allen may need to get the ball out of his hands quickly and can drop it down to Beasley.
I mentioned Allen’s tremendous mobility as a runner earlier. That could be another huge asset as he, like Lamar Jackson, has the ability to extend plays and pick up crucial yards and first downs with his legs.
The line: Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
The pick: I expect this game to be close, but I think Baltimore’s run game will put the Ravens over the top. I’m taking the Ravens to win as road underdogs.
Cleveland Browns (11-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (14-2), Sunday at 3:05 p.m. ET on CBS
- Key No. 1 for Cleveland: Get out to a fast start
The Browns were up 28-0 on the Pittsburgh Steelers before they even knew what hit them. They ended up winning by 11 after Pittsburgh made a furious attempt at a comeback.
While Kansas City definitely has the firepower to overcome a large deficit, staking themselves to a lead early will give the Browns a lot of confidence on the road and play into their hands as a team that runs the ball well.
The Browns cannot afford to play from behind. The Chiefs are an offensive juggernaut, and Cleveland will have trouble pulling even and pulling ahead if they fall behind early.
- Key No. 2 for Cleveland: Establishing the run
The Browns have the league’s third-best rushing attack, and the Chiefs are 21st when it comes to defending the run. Nick Chubb, despite playing in only 12 games, was seventh in rushing yards, fourth in yards per carry, second in runs of 20 yards or more, and tied for fourth in rushing touchdowns with 12.
Chubb also had four catches for 69 yards and a touchdown last week against the Steelers. He and Kareem Hunt form a dynamic backfield tandem. Cleveland’s best chance of beating the Chiefs is by controlling the clock and giving Kansas City as few possessions as possible.
- Key No. 1 for Kansas City: Big plays
Get big plays on offense and limit them on defense. Pretty simple, right?
Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce combined for an absurd 43 catches of 20 yards or more during the regular season. The Browns had 45 such catches as a team. The Chiefs are the league’s top passing team. Kansas City should continue to find its playmakers like Hill and Kelce in space and let them do what they do best.
The three touchdown drives that the Browns had in the first quarter last week all lasted three minutes or less. They either got a key defensive play like an interception that gave them a very short field or hit the Steelers with a big play. The Chiefs need to make the Browns earn everything they get on Sunday.
- Key No. 2 for Kansas City: Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Kansas City’s top running back has been out since Week 15 but could return against the Browns. He’s the best running back on the roster and is solid out of the backfield as well. While the Chiefs could drop back and throw it 40 times, I think they’re better off keeping teams off-balance and mixing it up with Edwards-Helaire.
If he can’t get a full complement of carries, can Le’Veon Bell or Darrel Williams pick up the slack? Neither has a run of 20 yards or more this season with the Chiefs.
The line: Kansas City Chiefs (-10.0)
The pick: The Chiefs should win this game, but 10 points appear to be a little much to me. I’ll take the Chiefs to win but not to cover.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5) at New Orleans Saints (12-4), Sunday at 6:40 p.m. ET on FOX
- Key No. 1 for Tampa Bay: Spread the ball around
As I’ll explain below, Mike Evans can’t be counted on to dominate in this game, especially as he’s working his way back from a left knee injury. Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Cameron Brate, and Rob Gronkowski are all viable options, and all should be involved in the offense.
Ronald Jones should be back in the lineup for the game and could be a major shot in the arm for the running and passing game. The Buccaneers have the league’s second-best passing offense and the third-best scoring offense. If you’re the Buccaneers, do what got you there.
- Key No. 2 for Tampa Bay: The G.O.A.T.
Tom Brady is the greatest quarterback ever. Period. However, Brady has not played well against the Saints this year. In fact, the Buccaneers got swept in the regular season series.
In the season opener, Brady completed just under 64% of his passes for 239 yards with two touchdowns and two picks. He completed just under 58% of his passes in November’s blowout loss in Tampa Bay. He threw for 209 yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions.
The Saints have had his number. In order for the Buccaneers to win, Brady will have to be the Brady we’ve grown accustomed to seeing over his legendary career. Throwing for under 250 yards at less than a 65% clip with multiple turnovers probably isn’t going to get it done.
- Key No. 1 for New Orleans: Marshon Lattimore
ESPN’s Mike Clay tweeted this out after the Saints crushed the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay to sweep their season series. Mike Evans’s last three receiving lines against Marshon Lattimore:
- 2 targets, 0 receptions
- 2 targets, 0 receptions
- 2 targets, 0 receptions
If Lattimore can continue to shut Evans down, that will help New Orleans scheme for Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski, and other elements of Tampa Bay’s prolific passing attack.
- Key No. 2 for New Orleans: Urgency
The Saints let the Chicago Bears hang around for a long time in their win last week. They’re facing a Buccaneers team that is weaker defensively but way better offensively, especially with Tom Brady under center.
The Buccaneers and the Saints both have top-10 scoring offenses and top-10 scoring defenses. The slight but important difference is that the Saints have both in the top five.
This very well could be Drew Brees’s last NFL game. The Saints need to play with energy and urgency from start to finish.
The line: New Orleans Saints (-3.0)
The pick: Josh Dubow of the Associated Press tweeted out earlier this week that this playoff game is the 23rd in the Super Bowl era featuring a team that swept the regular season series between them. He notes that the team that swept (in this case, the Saints) is 14-8 in the third meeting. With the Saints’ strong defense and offense and that historical note in mind, I’m taking the Saints to win and cover.
Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.
