President Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement has stoked the tensions between the Iranian hardliners aligned with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and the more-moderate faction led by President Hassan Rouhani.
Where the more-moderate faction wants to salvage something of the nuclear agreement so that European investment continues to flow into their economy, the hardliners sense an opportunity to drive the west out of Iran entirely and thus ensure the purity of the revolution. Still, the central divergence between the two sides is the tension between modernity and revolutionary purity.
On one side, Rouhani and his Foreign Minister Javad Zarif recognize that Iran’s young population (around 45 percent of Iranians are under 25) expects economic development. They know that without progress the people will take to the streets with increasing numbers and passion. In contrast, those around the revolutionary guards believe that the young must be corralled to the inevitability of the revolution.
Illustrating these tensions on Thursday, the second highest ranking IRGC officer Hossein Salami criticized Zarif for agreeing to high-level meetings with his European counterparts. “Resistance,” Salami told the pro-IRGC Fars News Agency, “is the only way to confront these enemies, not diplomacy.”
This aggressive confidence speaks to something deeper: The hardliners believe they have God and might on their side. As an extension, they sense that Trump’s withdrawal gives them opportunity to weaken Rouhani by presenting his openness to continued diplomacy as a weakness that dishonors the revolutionary republic.
Further complicating matters is the fact that Supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei is dying. While the Ayatollah is inclined towards the IRGC faction, he recognizes that the revolution must allow the people more freedom and prosperity if it is to survive. But all the various factions, including factions within factions, are trying to influence his legacy-making decisions before he dies.
For these reasons, Trump should proceed cautiously before sanctioning European businesses that operate in Iran. While that will be necessary if Europe does not support an amended nuclear deal, premature action will only empower the hardliners over those who might one day displace them. That would serve neither the Iranian nor the American public.
