Republicans may have botched their chance of winning the Senate after voters nominated several mediocre candidates in pivotal races. On the bright side, along with likely winning the House of Representatives, the crop of Republican gubernatorial candidates is looking better by the day.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball has moved Oregon’s gubernatorial race into the toss-up category. Outgoing Democratic Gov. Kate Brown is among the most unpopular in the country and, with the help of a former Democrat running as an independent, Republican nominee Christine Drazan has a shot at becoming the first GOP governor of Oregon since 1987.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball also rates Wisconsin as a toss-up, with a Marquette poll showing Democratic Gov. Tony Evers leading GOP nominee Tim Michels by just two points. In a third toss-up race, Democratic Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak also leads GOP nominee Joe Lombardo by just 2 points.
It isn’t just the toss-ups where Republicans are faring well. In New Mexico in 2020, Republican Mark Ronchetti came closer to winning a Senate seat than the much-hyped Democratic Senate candidates in Iowa, Maine, and South Carolina. Ronchetti is now running against Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (who was once floated as a running mate for Joe Biden). In the last three head-to-head polls, Ronchetti has trailed by just 3 and 4 points and led Grisham by a point in the third.
In Michigan, rising Democratic star Gov. Gretchen Whitmer also has a race on her hands. GOP nominee Tudor Dixon is just 5 points behind Whitmer in a recent poll. Democratic Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz also holds a low single-digit polling lead over GOP challenger Scott Jensen, as does Democratic Maine Gov. Janet Mills over her Republican opponent, Paul LePage.
New Fabrizio (R)/Impact (D) poll of MICHIGAN for the AARP shows a tight gov contest:
Whitmer (D-inc.) 51
Dixon (R) 46Whitmer fav/unfav: 50/48
Dixon fav/unfav: 38/41
Biden approval: 41/57
Whitmer approval: 51/47Generic ballot: D47-R45
(8/8-14, LVs)https://t.co/64BglK4exZ pic.twitter.com/L3nrZoEvr0
— Jacob “Inside Elections is hiring” Rubashkin (@JacobRubashkin) August 18, 2022
Republicans did not completely avoid the plague of mediocre pro-Trump candidates, as Kari Lake in Arizona and Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania are poised to blow otherwise winnable races. But, unlike the slate of Senate candidates, most of the GOP nominees in competitive races for governor are quality candidates. With Biden still wildly unpopular coming down the homestretch, Republicans have an opportunity to reshape the political landscape at the state level.
